- August 26, 2011
- Ocean’s 2011: Venezuelan Gold
Now might be a good time for Daniel Ocean to start assembling his gang of 11. Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez announced last week that he was ordering the country’s ample gold reserves back to Caracas for safe keeping. Not a bad idea given the global geopolitical environment, but with some 211 tons of 400-ounce gold bars to be moved from bank vaults in London, President Chavez has a logistical nightmare on his hands.How do you transport vast quantities of gold nearly 4,000 miles from one continent to another?
Reuters blogger Felix Salmon had an interesting piece this week breaking down the major options.
The most direct route would be to fly the gold home, but there are a couple of problems with that option. It would take roughly 40 different shipments to transport 211 tons of gold, the Financial Times says. Intercepting just one shipment would net a robber $300 million, Salmon says, and if not successful, you would have 39 more chances. It’s unlikely there’s an insurance company out there that would take on the responsibility.
Another option is to ship by boat using the Venezuelan Navy. The obvious risk here is piracy. Europe-to-South America shipping routes have a long history of piracy. Throw in the Bermuda Triangle, hurricanes and the incredibly slow pace—you’d have a month’s worth of $12 billion hand-wringing in Caracas.
The most inventive idea Salmon puts forth is to exchange it upon delivery. Gold stored in the Bank of England generally receives a 2 percent premium for its safety and prestige. Chavez could trade his Bank of England bars with another country upon the safe delivery of their own gold bullion in Caracas. This would cost Venezuela at least the 2 percent premium, but save the headache of transporting so much gold.
Even if the gold reaches Caracas safely, the challenge of securely storing it is immense. Salmon calls gold “the perfect heist: anonymous, untraceable, hugely valuable.” The transfer is so risky; this would be the world’s largest transfer of gold since 1936. There’s no official word on where Chavez will store Venezuela’s gold, but he said last week that “if there isn’t enough room to store the gold in the central bank vaults, I can lend you the basement of the Miraflores presidential palace.”
For the record, the U.S. houses its 8,100 tons of gold reserves in Central Kentucky at Fort Knox. The bullion vault lies in the center of a 110,000 acre base that’s also home to more than 10,000 troops and the mechanized tank division of the U.S. army—a security system even Ocean’s 11 couldn’t crack.
We’ll have to wait and see how this story develops, but it’s certain others on both sides of the law are watching closely as well.
All opinions expressed and data provided are subject to change without notice. Some of these opinions may not be appropriate to every investor. By clicking the links above, you will be directed to third-party websites. U.S. Global Investors does not endorse all information supplied by these websites and is not responsible for its/their content.
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- August 23, 2011
- Finding a Silver Lining in the Markets’ Dark Clouds
Call it choppy, volatile, fickle or lively, market action continued to disappoint last week. Frightened investors pulled out more than $40 billion from long-term mutual funds for the week ended August 10, according to the Investment Company Institute.The eurozone crisis fueled the outflows as economic growth figures for several eurozone countries disappointed—a hard trend to break given the austerity measures being implemented. Relatively, U.S. stocks have only suffered a fraction of the pain (down roughly 5 percent year-to-date as of August 16) felt by investors in the U.K. (down 9.2 percent), Germany (down 13.2 percent), France (down 15.1 percent) and Italy (21.9 percent).
Given this landscape, the International Strategy and Investment Group (ISI) lowered its forecast for global growth to 2.5 percent in 2012. That’s down from the 4-5 percent growth level many were estimating.
There is a silver lining: Despite all the negative news out there, the global economy will continue to grow.
In fact, the U.S. economy has had several positive developments recently. The four-week average for unemployment claims dropped to 402,000 during the week ending August 13. There is still a large chunk of America unable to find a job, but that group has shrunk 13 percent since August 2010 and is about 40 percent of peak 2009 levels.
Many S&P 500 Index companies have leveraged strong economic growth in emerging markets and a weaker U.S. dollar into higher profits. Second-quarter 2011 earnings for companies in the S&P 500 Index have been superb with nearly 71 percent of company earnings beating expectations, per ISI.
According to Citigroup, this continues a trend established in 2010 when year-over-year earnings for the S&P 500 were up more than 38 percent, more than double the historical average during the first full year following a recession.
In addition, the strong earnings report is across all sectors. These companies are also sitting on nearly the largest cash cushions as a percent of market capitalization (about 11 percent) we’ve seen in 20 years, Citigroup says. Markets have historically bottomed when cash as a percentage of market cap reaches 9 percent.
We’ve also seen a surge in U.S. money supply (M2). ISI says M2 has surged $460 billion (about 5 percent—38 percent on an annualized rate) over the past eight weeks. Though the rise is largely due to a plunge in institutional money funds, increased money supply means more funds are available to be lent out, pushing down borrowing rates. Access to this “cheap capital” can increase confidence and entice businesses to put cash to work.
Around the globe, two recent bright spots have been Taiwan and Russia. Taiwan’s equity market is technology heavy, says BCA Research, and the market’s performance tends to track the global information technology sector, not global markets. BCA says that Taiwan is set to outperform because “after two decades of stagnation, domestic demand has been showing signs of reviving…[and] equity/currency valuations remain attractive.” In Russia, strong cash positions and subdued credit flows since 2008 mean Russia’s “equity and credit markets are likely to outperform in the months ahead,” BCA says.
Stock market corrections are always difficult but they also create opportunities. One tried and true method which allows investors to compare similar companies is through relative valuation. This same process can be applied to asset classes. The S&P 500 currently yields about 2.27 percent—that’s higher than a 10-year Treasury bond which yields roughly 2.07 percent. The choice between the two is obvious for long-term investors: Equities.
If you were to buy the 10-year Treasury today, you would likely earn about 2 percent a year and get your principal back (barring disaster) in 10 years. However, by investing in stocks today, you could receive more in annual income plus the potential growth and appreciation over that time. Granted, the latter hasn’t always been positive. Just look at the past 10 years of returns for the S&P 500. But that’s been one of the worst periods in history for investing in stocks and it is unlikely stocks will suffer the same fate over the next 10 years.
The average annual total return for the S&P 500 during the 20th Century was 10.44 percent—the strongest period coming during the Tech boom in the late 1990s, research from Citigroup shows. Meanwhile, the total return on a 10-year Treasury bond was 4.68 percent over the same time period. Since 1961, there have been 18 years where the S&P 500 rose more than 15 percent compared to only 13 years of declines.
Those investors who have been waiting for a bounce in the markets may not have to wait too long. We mentioned last week that the S&P 500 has historically experienced strong upward moves after the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) reaches extreme levels. Research from Citigroup backs up this assertion, showing the average return for the S&P 500 is 5.5 percent (three months), 9.4 percent (six months) and 18.9 percent (12 months) following a breach of the 35-40 on the VIX.
All opinions expressed and data provided are subject to change without notice. Some of these opinions may not be appropriate to every investor. The S&P 500 Stock Index is a widely recognized capitalization-weighted index of 500 common stock prices in U.S. companies. M1 Money Supply includes funds that are readily accessible for spending. M2 Money Supply is a broad measure of money supply that includes M1 in addition to all time-related deposits, savings deposits, and non-institutional money-market funds. M3 money supply is the broadest monetary aggregate, including physical currency, demand accounts, savings and money market accounts, certificates of deposit, deposits of eurodollars and repurchase agreements. Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) Volatility Index (VIX) shows the market's expectation of 30-day volatility.
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- June 8, 2011
- Is Peru’s Humala Jekyll or Hyde for Mining?
The Peruvian stock market has had a very strong reaction to the recent outcome of the country’s presidential election. With Keiko Fujimori’s surprise loss to Ollanta Humala, many Peruvian stocks saw share prices sink before quickly recovering the following day.Grana y Montero, a large engineering company in Lima, saw its stock endure incredible volatility, reaching a three-month high shortly before the election, and then plummeting nearly 20 percent following election results.
The election has been a topic of discussion among our investment team, as we digest the outcome and discuss the implications a shift in Peru’s government policies would have on the country’s economy and largest industries.
(Read a previous summary of our discussion in “Pivotal Peru Election” here.)
Most of our conversations have focused on the possible ramifications for Peru’s mining industry, as it is vital to supplying the world with many important metals. The country is the world’s largest producer of silver, second-largest producer of copper and zinc, and sixth-largest producer of gold.
We’ve also been impressed with Peru’s recent economic success. The country’s GDP was 8.6 percent in 2010, outpacing Latin American countries including Chile (5.8 percent), Colombia (4.9 percent) and Mexico (4.5 percent). Due to heavy investments in the mining sector and emerging consumer demand, Peru should see its GDP hit 7 percent this year, one of the highest expected in the region.
The problem is most people don’t know where Humala’s intentions lie and opinions vary whether you live in the country or reside in the U.S. According to Bloomberg, investors are worried that Humala “could reverse policies the government expects will attract $50 billion of mostly mining investment and fuel average annual economic growth of 6 percent over the next three years.”
Our global strategist, Jacek Dzierwa, is optimistic for the long-term. He would be surprised to see Humala discard all of Peru’s recent successes and thinks the new president will seek to be more like Brazil’s Lula than Venezuela’s Chavez. But until the country’s finance minister and the head of central bank are named, this Jekyll or Hyde debate will continue to have its effect on markets, particularly mining stocks. As long-term investors, we’re mindful of the volatility but believe it’s not prudent to trade on this news without additional clarity from Peru’s new leader.
The following securities mentioned above were held by one or more of U.S. Global Investors Fund as of 3/31/11: Grana y Montero
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- May 18, 2011
- Chart of the Week: Emerging Europe’s Middle Class
Middle-class, affluent, bourgeois, white-collar … they all describe a group of people who enjoy a comfortable life, have access to healthcare and, most importantly, have discretionary income. And across developing nations, there is a growing group of affluent people that are just settling in to this lifestyle.
A few weeks ago we discussed how economic power is gradually shifting eastward and highlighted a McKinsey Global Institute report that showed China, Latin America and South Asia are projected to account for most of the middle class children by 2025. (Read: Middle-Class Middleweights to be Growth Champions).
Those regions aren’t the only ones. Our emerging markets team uncovered this chart for last week’s Investor Alert which shows a surging middle class exists in Eastern Europe as well. China leads the developing world with a middle and affluent class of 149 million—roughly the same size as the combined total populations of Japan and Taiwan.
While China is far ahead of all developing market countries with 149 million members of the middle and affluent class, investors shouldn’t overlook another important trend: The combined middle and affluent classes of the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Romania, Russia and Turkey equal that of China. Among emerging market nations, Russia has the second-largest middle and affluent class with 70 million people; Poland’s rivals that of India.
Turkey, which currently ranks seventh, has especially strong prospects. Already, its middle class is second among emerging markets in terms of GDP per capita at $17,586. In addition, this class is expected to grow at a 5.1 percent annual rate through 2029.
The Development Centre of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) Development Centre identifies the middle class population as the “consumer class” because of its importance on consumption levels. We agree with this designation as this class identifies an important global driver of economic growth.
We believe that people with discretionary income will seek to improve their way of life by buying their first vehicle, upgrading their home, purchasing appliances and gaining access to the Internet. For years to come, these middle and affluent classes should drive demand for new or improved infrastructure and needed commodities, thereby contributing to the substantial economic growth in several emerging nations around the world.
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- May 16, 2011
- Three Reasons to Believe in $100 Oil
After selling off nearly 14 percent the previous week, oil prices finished last week slightly higher at $99.65 per barrel. While the end result was a net positive, the volatility continued. Oil prices per barrel reached $104, then fell to around $96, before nesting just below $100.As an investor, this volatility can be difficult to handle. Throw in the uncertainty of today’s geopolitical environment, and investors feel the need to downsize their positions in commodity investments, such as oil.
We think markets could remain volatile in the short-term, but here are three long-term indicators to support $100+ per barrel oil prices.
1) Long-Term U.S. Dollar Weakness
The U.S. dollar was up over 1 percent again last week and has increased nearly 4 percent since hitting a 52-week low on April 29. On a five-day rate of change, the dollar is up about 1 standard deviation.
As I said last week, this move is less about the vigor of the U.S. dollar and more about the relative weakness of the eurozone and other fledgling countries. In addition, it’s likely we’ll continue to see relative strength in the U.S. dollar as we get closer to the end of the Federal Reserve’s QE2 program, set to wind down in June.
We think these are short-term drivers and don’t accurately reflect the long-term headwinds facing the dollar. I’ve discussed these often and in an attempt to keep this note brief, I’ll let the following picture tell the story.
This snapshot from USdebtclock.org (taken late in the afternoon on May 13) shows the precarious fiscal and monetary situation of the U.S. As you can see, the overwhelming color is red. Even if Washington decided on a comprehensive plan to fix entitlement overspending, trim defense spending and reduce the U.S. deficit today, it would take years to see any meaningful shift in these figures.
Therefore, we feel the recent uptrend in the U.S. dollar is a short-term reprieve from a long-term downtrend.
2) Demand from Emerging Markets Outpacing Developed Market Demand
While developed world demand has struggled to retrieve its previous strength, emerging markets have captured a significant share of global demand over the past three years. Emerging market countries have narrowed the oil usage gap between developed and emerging markets from roughly 12 million barrels per day in 2007 to just 4 million barrels per day as of late 2010.Last week, the Paris-based International Energy Agency (IEA) and the U.S. Department of Energy both communicated softness in global oil demand. The IEA noted that preliminary March data shows the first “marked slowdown” in annual growth for the first time since 2009. The IEA is forecasting growth of 1.3 million barrels per day in demand for crude oil in 2011, down from 2.8 million barrels per day in 2010.
This represents a significant slowdown in year-over-year growth and added to negative sentiment around oil last week, but it’s important to put things into context. You can see from the chart that global oil demand grew at an incredible pace in 2010. The 1.3 million barrels of demand growth that is expected for 2011 is less than last year, but is more along the lines with historical rates and maintains the forward momentum for rising oil demand.
Emerging markets, driven by China, are the main source of the increase in demand. You can see from this next chart how China’s demand for crude oil imports has grown over the past decade or so. China imported an average of just under 1.4 million barrels a day of oil in 2002 when prices were hovering around $20 per barrel.In the years since, China’s crude oil imports have increased more than 260 percent despite per barrel oil prices jumping nearly four-fold. This is indicative of the insatiable demand that emerging markets have for oil.
3) Majority of Global Oil Reserves Located in Geopolitically Unstable Regions
In the April 11 update “Why High Oil Prices Are Likely Here to Stay,” we highlighted how a large portion of the world’s proven oil reserves and production comes from unstable countries and regions, including Nigeria, Venezuela, Iraq, Iran and Libya. According to some estimates, as much as 80 percent of the world’s oil reserves lie beneath these shaky regions.
Civil wars and attacks on oil facilities can create production slowdowns or even shut down production entirely. The conflict in Libya and unrest in several other Middle East countries shows just how quickly this can affect global oil markets. Iraq is another example of the difficulties inherent in production expansion in these regions. Last week, the country’s former oil minister said it would only be able to meet half of its stated production goal by 2017. The original forecast, clearly a lofty one, called for roughly 12 million barrels per day in oil production.
Over the years, the proximity of oil reserves to unrest has led to a reduction in global spare capacity or the excess amount of oil that can be produced, if desired, to meet demand. When the turmoil broke out in Libya, the general consensus was that Saudi Arabia’s spare capacity would be more than enough to meet market demand. That hasn’t been the case as Saudi Arabia has moved to calm its own population to prevent unrest.
The result is little wiggle room to meet demand should we experience a boom in demand or an event disrupting production. In general, these supply/demand dynamics support historically high prices.
All opinions expressed and data provided are subject to change without notice. Some of these opinions may not be appropriate to every investor. Standard deviation is a measure of the dispersion of a set of data from its mean. The more spread apart the data, the higher the deviation. Standard deviation is also known as historical volatility.
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