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June 14, 2013
Going to a Digital Extreme in China

In its shift toward a consumption-driven economy, China has been embracing digital technology at rates that dwarf those of many developed countries. The Chinese have been scooping up smartphones, accessing the internet and consuming goods from online retailers at an incredible pace. We believe the world needs to quickly adapt to China becoming a major player in the digital marketplace, as this trend is in the early stages of exciting growth.

See how consumption patterns have changed.

Only a few mobile phone owners in China are using smartphones today, but the country is quickly closing that gap. As you can see below, the smartphone penetration as a percentage of total mobile phone users is lower than that in the U.S. In 2012, smartphone devices made up only a little more than 10 percent in China; in the U.S., they comprised 35 percent.

However, the smartphone market is one of the fastest growing sectors in China these days. This year, 3G smartphone users are expected to double to 300 million people, which is equivalent to every single resident in the U.S. owning a smartphone! 

And the country’s smartphone trend is early in adoption: Penetration in 2013 is estimated to be only 23 percent of mobile users, versus 40 percent in the U.S., says CLSA.

Accelerating smartphone penetration in China should benefit handset component suppliers
click to enlarge

With a growing use of smartphones, “mobile web is the best way to reach users,” says CLSA. While the number of users with regular internet access in China has been rising substantially, after iOS and Android became available in 2009, mobile internet adoption has gone vertical. This is 4.5 times faster than internet users, according to Lee Kai-Fu, one of the pioneers who helped proliferate the internet in China in the late 1990s. If the trajectory maintains its course, mobile internet users should soon surpass the number of users on traditional formats.

Mobile Internet adoption 4.5x faster that regular internet in China
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This skyrocketing use of the internet is one of the driving forces that is “powering consumption,” especially in the e-tail industry. According to McKinsey Global Institute, China is already the world’s second-largest e-tail market. Since 2003, the market has had an annual growth rate of a whopping 120 percent!

You can see a snapshot of this tremendous industry in McKinsey’s analysis of online retail sales. According to a sample of Chinese cities in 2011, apparel, recreation and education, and household products are “the three largest online retail segments in China,” says McKinsey.

Among 266 cities representing more than 70 percent of online retail sales, the share of online consumption in apparel reached 35 percent. Recreational products, including consumer electronics, books and tickets took a 20 percent share of online consumption. Household products such as appliances and furniture had a 15 percent share.

Online Spending in Sample of Chinese Cities in 2011
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However, online retailing is only in its infancy in China, with its future perhaps “more impressive,” says McKinsey. The research firm estimates by 2020, the e-tailing industry may “generate $420 billion to $650 billion in sales.” If growth continues at its current pace, “China’s market will equal that of the United States, Japan, the United Kingdom, Germany, and France combined today.”

With more Chinese owning smartphones, having access to the internet and buying online, Michael Ding, portfolio manager of the China Region Fund (USCOX), believes there are tremendous business opportunities opening up beyond online shopping, including online games, online search, online advertisements, and many other internet applications.

The China Region Fund, which invests in regional sectors exhibiting top relative strength, has benefited from an allocation to information technology in recent months. We believe this has helped the fund outperform its benchmark Hang Seng Composite Index (HSCI) this year, with the fund increasing 6.70 percent and the HSCI rising only 0.50 percent as of May 31, 2013. See the industry breakdown of the fund now.

Total Annualized Returns as of 3/31/13
  One-Year Five-Year Ten-Year Gross Expense Ratio Expense Ratio After Waivers
China Region Fund 3.06% -4.90% 11.18% 2.66% 2.55%
Hang Seng Composite Index 11.95% 2.17% 14.84% NA NA

Expense ratios as stated in the most recent prospectus. The expense ratio after waivers is a voluntary limit on total fund operating expenses (exclusive of any acquired fund fees and expenses, performance fees, taxes, brokerage commissions and interest) that U.S. Global Investors, Inc. can modify or terminate at any time, which may lower a fund’s yield or return. Performance data quoted above is historical. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Results reflect the reinvestment of dividends and other earnings. Current performance may be higher or lower than the performance data quoted. The principal value and investment return of an investment will fluctuate so that your shares, when redeemed, may be worth more or less than their original cost. Performance does not include the effect of any direct fees described in the fund’s prospectus (e.g., short-term trading fees of 0.05%) which, if applicable, would lower your total returns. Performance quoted for periods of one year or less is cumulative and not annualized. Obtain performance data current to the most recent month-end at www.usfunds.com or 1-800-US-FUNDS.

Please consider carefully a fund’s investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses. For this and other important information, obtain a fund prospectus by visiting www.usfunds.com or by calling 1-800-US-FUNDS (1-800-873-8637). Read it carefully before investing. Distributed by U.S. Global Brokerage, Inc.

Foreign and emerging market investing involves special risks such as currency fluctuation and less public disclosure, as well as economic and political risk. By investing in a specific geographic region, a regional fund’s returns and share price may be more volatile than those of a less concentrated portfolio.

By clicking the link above, you will be directed to a third-party website. U.S. Global Investors does not endorse all information supplied by this website and is not responsible for its content.

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June 4, 2013
Why It Pays to Invest in Emerging Market Dividend-Payers

An unexpected change of heart happened in May that you might not have heard about. After years of resisting any path other than its rigorous course, Germany announced it is backing off from pure austerity and is now planning to spend billions of euros to stimulate the economies of Europe.

Germany, which had been the economic rock of Europe, was facing fissures in its economy as well as an upcoming election season.

With pressure building, Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble and Chancellor Angela Merkel are now “willing to abandon ironclad tenets of their current bailout philosophy,” says Spiegel Online.

Berlin’s about-face seemed to be underreported, but the news is significant to global growth. Many countries around the world, especially emerging markets, have been trying to charge ahead, implementing stimulative easing and monetary policies to strengthen their economies, yet Europe was still a drag.

Just look at the unemployment rate in the Europe area, which recently rose to 12.2 percent, a new record, according to Business Insider.

Weeks ago, when a student discovered a mistake in the famous report of Harvard professors Carmen Reinhart and Ken Rogoff, I said that calling this data into question provides a platform for Germany and the European Union to lessen austerity measures and delay the inevitable. It appears that Schäuble and Merkel have taken their first step onto the stage of unprecedented monetary policies.

From March 2009 when the first round of quantitative easing began, central banks have cut interest rates a total of 515 times and injected $12 trillion into markets, says Bank of America Merrill Lynch (BoA-ML). As a result, U.S. stock investors saw the market take off an astounding 166 percent since the first shot of liquidity.

However, contrary to what you may think, the U.S. is not the best performing market in the world. Take a look at the chart below, which ranks the top 10 equity markets’ total return over these past four years. Stocks in Indonesia grew 372 percent, Turkey rose 286 percent and Mexico has climbed 211 percent. Even Singapore, Korea and Australia climbed more than the U.S. stocks.

Equity Market Total Return
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In addition to all the global liquidity sloshing around, central banks have also “crushed bond yields to the point that almost 50 percent of all global government bond market cap currently trades below 1 percent,” according to BoA-ML.

In a great illustration of today’s low yield environment, the research firm compared the yields across debt markets from 2007 and 2008 to today. In June 2007, Treasuries were yielding more than 4.5 percent; today, they are sitting just above 0.5 percent. Even the riskier high-yield corporate bonds, which climbed to a high of 23 percent in December 2008, have fallen to about 5 percent.

Yields Have Collapsed Over Past Six Years
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Even though market pundits talk about elevated rates on the horizon, we believe significantly higher rates that would move the needle for an income investor is a ways off. Low yields should be a significant factor for awhile.

That’s why it may be a good time to look at emerging markets dividend-paying stocks. Many emerging markets are growing faster than their developed counterparts. In addition, emerging markets are currently yielding more than U.S. stocks. While the S&P 500 Index pays a dividend yield of 2.05 percent, the stocks in the MSCI Emerging Markets Index are yielding 2.65 percent.

For those who can handle a little more risk, take a closer look at the Global Emerging Markets Fund (GEMFX), which seeks undervalued, smaller and dividend-paying companies located in developing markets around the world. On a year-to-date basis, the fund is outperforming its benchmark, the MSCI Emerging Markets Index by nearly 6 percent. See the fund’s latest holdings.

Total Annualized Returns as of 3/31/13
Fund Year-to-Date One-Year Five-Year Ten-Year Gross Expense Ratio Expense Ratio After Waivers
Global Emerging Markets Fund (GEMFX) 2.87% -1.18% -11.10% NA 5.40% 3.15%
MSCI Emerging Market Index -1.62% 1.96% 1.09% 17.05% NA NA

Expense ratios as stated in the most recent prospectus. Performance data quoted above is historical. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Results reflect the reinvestment of dividends and other earnings. Current performance may be higher or lower than the performance data quoted. The principal value and investment return of an investment will fluctuate so that your shares, when redeemed, may be worth more or less than their original cost. Performance does not include the effect of any direct fees described in the fund’s prospectus (e.g., short-term trading fees of 0.05%) which, if applicable, would lower your total returns. Performance quoted for periods of one year or less is cumulative and not annualized. Obtain performance data current to the most recent month-end at www.usfunds.com or 1-800-US-FUNDS.

Please consider carefully a fund’s investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses. For this and other important information, obtain a fund prospectus by visiting www.usfunds.com or by calling 1-800-US-FUNDS (1-800-873-8637). Read it carefully before investing. Distributed by U.S. Global Brokerage, Inc.

Foreign and emerging market investing involves special risks such as currency fluctuation and less public disclosure, as well as economic and political risk. The S&P 500 Stock Index is a widely recognized capitalization-weighted index of 500 common stock prices in U.S. companies. The MSCI Emerging Markets Total Net Return Index is a free float-adjusted market capitalization index that is designed to measure equity market performance in emerging market countries on a net return basis (i.e., reflects the minimum possible dividend reinvestment after deduction of the maximum rate withholding tax).

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May 21, 2013
Making Investment Grade Is Only the Beginning for Turkey

Istanbul, Turkey

It’s been a few months since I was in Istanbul and wrote about Turkey’s exciting cultural and economic transformation, and the country is still making headlines. The Emerging Europe Fund’s (EUROX) portfolio manager, Tim Steinle, has been very bullish on Turkey for multiple reasons, including its young growing demographic, its fiscal and monetary policies geared toward growth, and its entrepreneurial mindset and pro-business policies, to name just a few.

Most recently, Moody’s Investors Service validates our opinion of Turkey as the rating agency upgraded the country’s credit rating from Baa3 to Ba1 with a stable outlook.

The move brings about the long-awaited second investment grade rating, following Fitch’s upgrade in November 2012. The agency highlighted the recent and expected improvements in finance metrics, as well as noticeable progress on structural and institutional reforms.

In addition, Turkey’s central bank cut rates by 50 basis points, exceeding analyst expectations as it seeks to contain currency appreciation. The lira has been strengthening as capital inflows seeking to benefit from the country’s promising economic growth remain strong.

Local stocks historically received a boost in the months following an upgrade. The table below shows HSBC Global Research’s chart of the performance of the Philippines’ equity market following its credit upgrades. One month after the rating upgrade, stocks rose an average of 2 percent. In the three months after its upgrade, stocks climbed 10.3 percent, on average.

Philippines' Flag  Philippines’ Equity Market Continues to Increase After Rating Upgrades
Agency Date of the event Rating Previous Rating -3 month  -1 month +1 month +3 month
S&P May-2-13 BBB- BB+ 11.2% 4.1% NA NA
Fitch Mar-27-13 BBB- BB+ 18.4% 2.8% 1.4% NA
Moody’s Oct-29-12 Ba1  Ba2 6.4% 2.2% 6.0% 16.8%
S&P Jul-4-12  BB+ BB 7.5% 13.1% -1.3% 3.8%
Average       10.9% 5.6% 2.0% 10.3%
Source: HSBC Global Research, Bloomberg, MSCI, Thomson Reuters Datastream

Turkey stands among the strongest countries to benefit from current global easing. Internally, inflation is well under control, and domestic consumption is unabated. Furthermore, the country’s stock market continues to trade on a cheaper price to earnings valuation when compared to countries like Mexico, Malaysia, and Thailand, says HSBC. Hence, there is ample reason to believe the Turkish equity market should continue to outperform.

We’ve discussed Turkey’s ongoing financial and economic strength over the past few years. Click below to read more:

 

Samuel Pelaez, analyst at U.S. Global Investors, contributed to this commentary.

Please consider carefully a fund’s investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses. For this and other important information, obtain a fund prospectus by visiting www.usfunds.com or by calling 1-800-US-FUNDS (1-800-873-8637). Read it carefully before investing. Distributed by U.S. Global Brokerage, Inc.

Foreign and emerging market investing involves special risks such as currency fluctuation and less public disclosure, as well as economic and political risk. By investing in a specific geographic region, a regional fund’s returns and share price may be more volatile than those of a less concentrated portfolio.

The Emerging Europe Fund invests more than 25 percent of its investments in companies principally engaged in the oil & gas or banking industries. The risk of concentrating investments in this group of industries will make the fund more susceptible to risk in these industries than funds which do not concentrate their investments in an industry and may make the fund’s performance more volatile.

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March 15, 2013
A Taxing Situation in Europe

A few months ago, I talked about how a financial transactions tax can have significant unintended consequences. Using Hungary as an example, I said that when the government implemented a levy of 0.5 percent on banks’ assets, bank credit growth rates plummeted. As a result, Hungary’s household and corporate sector credit growth rates became anemic compared to other Eastern European countries.

Now it appears that Italy is going “Hungary” by introducing a financial transaction tax that became effective in March. For shares of Italian companies, investors are taxed an additional 0.12 percent of the value of the shares purchased in a regulated market or trading platform. For over-the-counter transactions, the tax is even more costly, at 0.22 percent, according to Reuters.

Since going into effect on March 1, trading in Italian stocks through desks of major banks has plummeted. According to the Financial Times, average daily trading volumes in March have dropped about 40 percent compared to the previous month. “This is the biggest fall in volumes on any major European exchange so far this year,” says the FT.

I believe this is a great example of how government policies are precursors to change. With a reduction in trading volumes, fewer buyers and sellers participate in the bid-and-ask process, and less competition can cause prices to languish.

With fewer buyers owning shares of public companies, investors’ portfolios are likely going to be deficient in growth assets. Take a look at Investment Company Institute data showing a decline in the percentage of households in the U.S. holding individual stocks in 2012 compared to 2002. In addition, Americans are less likely to own shares of their companies’ stock today compared to 10 years ago.

With less stock ownership, many of these U.S. investors likely missed out on the market’s tremendous rise over the last few years.

In March 2013, ICI issued a response to the financial transaction tax that’s been introduced in the U.S., saying, “A financial transaction tax is bad policy that substantially reduces the investment returns of fund investors and retirement savers. Whether introduced in the United States, Europe, or elsewhere, financial transaction taxes slow economic growth, drive away financial activity, and make markets less efficient.”

I believe leaders in Washington D.C. and around the world should be focused on policies that encourage individuals to invest rather than making it more onerous. I hope those considering similar financial transactions are taking note.

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March 5, 2013
A New Chapter for Turkey?

In 2012, Turkey was the best performer among the emerging markets we track on our Periodic Table showing a decade of returns. All developing countries rose last year, but stocks in Turkey climbed an astounding 56 percent.

Turkey Outperformed Emerging Markets in2012

See a decade of results for yourself with our interactive periodic table

While visiting the country last week, I was happy to see my explicit knowledge of Turkey’s growth was supported by my tacit knowledge.

Istanbul has been in the midst of a fantastic transformation from an impoverished population to one of affluence. Popping up among the beautiful Ottoman mosques, Byzantine churches, palaces and bazaars are ultra-contemporary art sculptures, shopping malls and lush landscaping. This blend of ancient with modern fits well with the young, vibrant and culturally diverse crowd that hangs out in the local cafes, shops and galleries.

Investment managers like me aren’t the only ones showing increased interest in Turkey’s new-found prosperity. Secretary of State John Kerry visited Turkey during his first overseas trip as America’s top diplomat.

Frank Holmes in Istambul, Turkey

German Chancellor Angela Merkel, the powerhouse figure of the European Union, was also in Ankara recently to meet with President Abdullah Gul and Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan. The topic of their discussion is not new, but suggests a “new chapter” for Turkey. These leaders are picking up the conversation started years ago regarding Turkey entering the European Union (EU).

Tim Steinle, portfolio manager of the Eastern European Fund (EUROX), says that unlike Greece, which fudged its numbers to join the EU, Turkey was held to a higher standard. But it doggedly pursued its aspiration, and in the process of implementing the EU accession chapters, such as the Right of Establishment & Freedom to Provide Services, Company Law, Financial Services, Information Society & Media, Statistics, Financial Control, and Science & Research, had modernized its economy, making it competitive with those of Western Europe. In addition, open trade with the EU allowed it to build a diversified export economy.

Turkey’s admittance to the EU had stalled over Cyprus, but more recently, France and Germany seem to be warming to the idea. Under newly elected President Francois Hollande, France is opening another chapter to the accession, and Angela Merkel’s visit to Turkey is signaling a shift in Berlin’s position on Turkey’s membership.

This wasn’t the only time Turkey reformed its policies. In 2001, the country experienced its own devastating financial crisis, and as a result of that experience (with which the rest of the world can now sympathize), the government adopted tough, but important financial and fiscal reforms. These reforms helped the country rebound, and its strong banking regulations kept banks well capitalized compared to the U.S. and Europe.

In the charts below, you can see the result of the government’s determination. From 2010 through 2012, Turkey’s GDP exceeded that of Europe, the Middle East and Africa (EMEA), as well as the rest of the world. Through 2015, GDP is also expected to be greater than EMEA’s GDP as well as overall world GDP. Simply stated, Turkey “remains superior in the region,” says Wood & Co.

Turkey expected to grow faster than EMEA and World

Turkey’s manufacturing sector, in areas such as the automotive industry, white goods that include refrigerators and washing machines, and glass makers, has also been growing in strength.

For nearly two years, Turkey’s purchasing managers’ index (PMI) has been significantly stronger than Europe’s and “outstrips global averages,” says Wood & Co. Although the PMIs around the world fell rapidly in mid-2011, Turkey’s manufacturing hasn’t fallen below the expansion number of 50 as often, and as significantly, as Europe. According to Wood, Turkey’s PMI also recovered, “signaling growth ahead.”

Manufacturing Output in Turkey stronger than europe

Turkey’s latest manufacturing PMI number of 53.5 in February was slightly lower than its January figure of 54.0, but manufacturing remains solid and in expansion territory. Businesses are reporting an increase in new orders, new products and new clients and “new business from abroad increased at the fastest pace since January 2012,” says HSBC.

With the country exhibiting positive demographics, strong consumer demand and an open, competitive economy, Turkey is at a figurative, as well as literal, crossroad between Europe and Asia. The European Energy commissioner Günther Oettinger annoyed Germany when he suggested that the EU needed Turkey more than Turkey needed the EU: “I would like to bet that one day in the next decade a German chancellor and his or her counterpart in Paris will have to crawl to Ankara on their knees to beg the Turks, ‘Friends, come to us.’”

However, Spiegel Online reports Erdogan hinted that the emerging economy may consider joining the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, which includes countries such as China and Russia, instead. “The economic powers of the world are shifting from west to east, and Turkey is one of these growth economies,” remarked the prime minister.

My visit to Istanbul was thrilling, and I’m equally excited about the continued investment prospects for Turkey as it gains in economic strength. U.S. Global’s Eastern European Fund (EUROX) is a unique way to gain access to this area, as a significant percentage of its holdings are located in Turkey. Read more about the fund here.

Tim Steinle contributed to this commentary.

Please consider carefully a fund’s investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses. For this and other important information, obtain a fund prospectus by visiting www.usfunds.com or by calling 1-800-US-FUNDS (1-800-873-8637). Read it carefully before investing. Distributed by U.S. Global Brokerage, Inc.

Foreign and emerging market investing involves special risks such as currency fluctuation and less public disclosure, as well as economic and political risk. By investing in a specific geographic region, a regional fund’s returns and share price may be more volatile than those of a less concentrated portfolio. The Eastern European Fund invests more than 25% of its investments in companies principally engaged in the oil & gas or banking industries. The risk of concentrating investments in this group of industries will make the fund more susceptible to risk in these industries than funds which do not concentrate their investments in an industry and may make the fund’s performance more volatile.

All opinions expressed and data provided are subject to change without notice. Some of these opinions may not be appropriate to every investor.

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More Results:

Net Asset Value
as of 06/17/2013

Global Resources Fund PSPFX $9.48 0.07 Gold and Precious Metals Fund USERX $7.43 -0.01 World Precious Minerals Fund UNWPX $6.97 -0.01 China Region Fund USCOX $7.68 0.08 Emerging Europe Fund EUROX $8.69 0.02 Global Emerging Markets Fund GEMFX $7.24 No Change MegaTrends Fund MEGAX $9.11 0.05 All American Equity Fund GBTFX $29.35 0.16 Holmes Growth Fund ACBGX $21.25 0.14 Tax Free Fund USUTX $12.55 No Change Near-Term Tax Free Fund NEARX $2.25 No Change U.S. Government Securities Savings Fund UGSXX $1.00 No Change U.S. Treasury Securities Cash Fund USTXX $1.00 No Change