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Please note: The Frank Talk articles listed below contain historical material. The data provided was current at the time of publication. For current information regarding any of the funds mentioned in these presentations, please visit the appropriate fund performance page.

3 Reasons Why Gold Isn’t Behaving Like Gold Right Now
July 27, 2015

Green-GoldAs many of you know, I was in San Francisco the week before last where I had been invited to speak at the MoneyShow, one of the biggest, most preeminent investor conferences in the world. Over the past couple of decades, I’ve spoken at many MoneyShows all around the country and have covered many different topics. Gold investing is one that often draws a big crowd. Not this year. Guess which natural resource stole the show?

The commodity that attracted attendees’ attention is one that until pretty recently could only be grown and harvested under the shroud of secrecy. Marijuana. Currently legal in 23 states and the District of Columbia, medical marijuana generated $2.7 billion in 2014 and is expected to bring in $3.4 billion this year. Investors are taking notice. The cash crop is even starting to change intranational migration. Whereas many retired seniors flock to warmer climates in which to live out their golden years, others now factor in whether a state will permit them to self-medicate in order to treat their arthritis, according to a recent Time article.

Investors themselves who might have suffered from arthritis attended the pot presentation at their own risk, as it was standing room only. They couldn’t have been pulled away even to sit comfortably in the scarcely occupied room next door. Sentiment toward gold was indeed very bearish at the MoneyShow, as it is around the world right now.

Gold Hits the Reset Button

Gold is universally recognized as a safe-haven investment, a go-to asset class when others look uncertain. Following the 2008 financial crisis, for instance, the metal’s price surged, eventually topping out at $1,900 per ounce in August 2011.

But last week proved to be a particularly rocky one for the metal, even with Greece and Puerto Rico’s debt dilemmas, not to mention the recent Shanghai stock market decline, fresh in investors’ minds. Gold traded down for 10 straight sessions to end the week at $1,099 per ounce, its lowest point in more than five years. Commodities in general dropped to a 13-year low.

Commodities-Drop-to-a-13-Year-Low
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Gold stocks, as expressed by the XAU, also tumbled.

gold-stocks-slide-to-a-multi-year-low
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The selloff was given a huge push when China, for the first time in six years, revealed the amount of gold its central bank holds. Although the number jumped nearly 60 percent since 2009 to 1,658 tonnes, markets were underwhelmed, as they had expected to see double the amount.

Then in the early hours last Monday, gold experienced a “mini flash-crash” after five tonnes appeared on the Asian market. Initially this might not sound like a lot, but five tonnes equates to 176,370 ounces, or about $2.7 billion. It also represents about a fifth of a normal day’s trading volume. Suffice it to say, price discovery was effectively disrupted. In a matter of seconds, gold fell 4 percent before bouncing back somewhat.

Reflecting on the trading session, widely-respected market analyst Keith Fitz-Gerald noted: “Far from being a one-day crash, this could represent one of the best gold-buying opportunities of the year.”

The last time the metal descended this quickly was 18 months ago, on January 6, 2014, when someone brought a massive gold sell order on the market before retracting it in a high-frequency trading tactic called “quote stuffing.” Last month I shared with you that we now know who might have been responsible for the action—and many others that preceded it—and pointed out that the accused party’s penalty of $200,000 was grossly inadequate. Last Monday I told Daniela Cambone during the Gold Game Film that such downward price manipulation seems to result in little more than a slap on the wrist. But if manipulation is done on the upside, traders could get into serious trouble.

Besides apparent price manipulation, other factors are affecting gold’s behavior right now, three in particular.

1. Strong U.S. Dollar

Like crude oil, gold around the world is priced in U.S. dollars. This means that when the greenback gains in strength, the yellow metal becomes more expensive for overseas buyers. With the U.S. economy on the mend after the recession, the dollar index remains steady at a 12-year high.

It’s important to recognize, though, that gold is still strong in other world currencies, including the Canadian dollar. As such, our precious metals funds have hedged Canadian dollar exposure for Canadian gold stocks, which has benefited our overall performance.

2. Interest Rates on the Rise?

Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen continues to hint that interest rates might be hiked sometime this year, perhaps even as early as September. When rates move higher, non-yielding assets such as gold often take a hit.

As you can see, the 10-year Treasury bond yield and gold have an inverse relationship. When the yield starts to rise, investors might find bonds a more attractive asset class.

Inverse-Relationship-Between-Gold-and-the-10-Year-Treasury-Bond-Yield
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3. Slowing Manufacturing Activity

Earlier this month I wrote about the downtrend in manufacturing activity across the globe. As many loyal readers are well aware, we closely monitor the global purchasing manager’s index (PMI) because, as our research has shown, when the one-month reading has fallen below the three-month moving average, select commodity prices have receded six months later.

Global-Manufacturing-PMI-Continues-Its-Downtrend
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China is the 800-pound commodity gorilla, and its own PMI has remained below the important 50 threshold for the last three months, indicating contraction. The preliminary flash PMI, released last Friday, shows that manufacturing has dipped to 48.2, a 15-month low. For gold and other commodities to recover, it’s crucial that China jumpstart its economy.

In the meantime, we’re encouraged by news that the slump in prices has accelerated retail demand in both China and India, which, when combined, account for half of the world’s gold consumption.

Battening Down the Hatches

They say that a smooth sea never made a skillful sailor. No one embodies this more than Ralph Aldis, portfolio manager of our precious metals funds. He and our talented team of analysts are doing a commendable job weathering this storm. We’re invested in strong, reliable companies, and when commodities eventually turn around, we should be in a good position to catch the wind.

We look forward to the second half of the year, when gold prices have historically seen a bump in anticipation of Diwali, which falls on November 11 this year, and the Chinese New Year. As you can see, average monthly gold performance has ramped up starting in September.

Average-Monthly-Gold-Performance
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 “Gold is down 15 to 25 percent below production levels,” Ralph says. “That might cause some companies to halt production.”

And, in so doing, help prices find firmer footing.

After my trip to San Francisco, an important rallying point for the 1960s counterculture movement, it only seems fitting that I traveled to Colorado, one of the first states to legalize cannabis for recreational use. It was only a coincidence that Julia Guth chose to retreat to the state’s beautiful mountains for the Oxford Club’s educational seminar. It was a privilege to present to two assemblies of curious investors like yourself.  I enjoy meeting many of you when I’m on the road.

The Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM) is a broadly diversified commodity price index distributed by Bloomberg Indexes. The index was originally launched in 1998 as the Dow Jones-AIG Commodity Index (DJ-AIGCI) and renamed to Dow Jones-UBS Commodity Index (DJ-UBSCI) in 2009, when UBS acquired the index from AIG. The Philadelphia Gold and Silver Index (XAU) is a capitalization-weighted index that includes the leading companies involved in the mining of gold and silver.

The J.P. Morgan Global Purchasing Manager’s Index is an indicator of the economic health of the global manufacturing sector. The PMI index is based on five major indicators: new orders, inventory levels, production, supplier deliveries and the employment environment.

All opinions expressed and data provided are subject to change without notice. Some of these opinions may not be appropriate to every investor.

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Crude Oil Is the Best-Performing Commodity of 2015 So Far
July 20, 2015

Can we really be halfway through the year? That’s what my calendar tells me, which means it’s time for the 2015 commodities halftime report.

The periodic table of commodity returns, consistently one of our most popular pieces, has been updated to reflect the first half of 2015. Click on the table for a larger image. If you’d prefer your own copy of the original, simply email us.

Commodities-Table-1st-Half-2015
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As an asset class, commodities continue to be a challenging space for investors, as they’ve faced many headwinds lately including lackluster purchasing managers’ index (PMI) numbers and a strong U.S. dollar.

Inverse-relationship-between-the-US-dollar-and-commodities
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Crude Pulls off Coup but Faces Strong Downward Pressure

The widest expansion this year was made by none other than crude oil, the worst-performing commodity of 2014. As of June 30, oil posted gains of over 11 percent, rising to $59.47 per barrel. After falling more than 50 percent since last summer, though, it had little else to go but up. That oil claimed the top spot just highlights the reality that commodities are in a slump right now.

Crude-Oil-Was-2015-Best-Performing-Commodity-As-Of-June-30

Case in point: This week, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) retreated to $50 per barrel, putting it back in the red for the year. This move was largely in response to Greece’s debt dilemma, China’s slowdown and weakening PMI numbers. After the JPMorgan Global Manufacturing & Services PMI was released, showing a continued downtrend in manufacturing activity, oil almost immediately dropped $4. The lifting of sanctions on Iran, if approved by Congress, could also place downward pressure on WTI, with some analysts seeing it returning to the $40s range.

As the 800-pound commodity gorilla, China greatly contributes to the performance of oil. Its own PMI reading remains below the key 50 threshold, indicating that its manufacturing sector is in contraction mode. This has a huge effect on the consumption of oil and other important commodities.

The good news is that the projected crude price for the remainder of 2015 should be high enough to support continued production in drilling areas such as the Bakken, Eagle Ford and Permian basins, according to the Energy Information Administration (EIA). The oil rig count, as reported by Baker Hughes, has advanced for the third consecutive week, after 29 straight weeks of declines.

Number-of-US-gas-and-oil-rigs-climbs-for-three-consecutive-weeks
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King Corn Pops to the Top

We all know that corn is in practically everything we eat and drink, from soda to bread to salad dressing. It’s fed to livestock and poultry and used to make ethanol, plastic, glue and more. The grain is so ingrained in our lives that the U.S. government subsidizes it to the tune of $4.5 billion a year.

For this reason and more, American farmers favor corn. In 2013, a record amount of it was grown and sent to market, which resulted in a price decline of 40 percent. That year it was the worst-performing commodity.

Since then, corn has found its footing and, as of June 30, returned 4.28 percent.   

Zinc Is Flying off Car Lots

Sought for its anti-corrosive properties, zinc is staging a comeback and is set to make its longest run of gains in over a year, according to Mineweb.

Strong European Car Sales Have Been a Boon for ZincThe reason? Accelerating automobile sales in Europe. Zinc can be found in most car parts, from tires to door handles, and because it can store six times more energy per pound than more conventional battery systems, the metal is also used in electric vehicles. 

The European Automobile Manufacturers Association reports that demand for new vehicles is up 14 percent year-over-year in June, its largest increase since December 2009. New car registrations in most European markets are seeing double-digit growth, with Portugal, Spain, Ireland and the Czech Republic leading the pack.

Gold Demand in China Sparkles

In a much-anticipated announcement, China broke its six-year silence on the amount of gold its central bank holds. And although the number jumped nearly 60 percent from 1,054 tonnes in 2009 to 1,658 tonnes, it underwhelmed the market, as many analysts had expected almost double the amount. Bullion fell to a fresh five-year low on Friday, while stock in Barrick Gold, the world’s largest producer, plunged to a level not seen since the Bush Administration—the elder Bush, that is.

But other news out of China, the largest purchaser of gold, suggests that the yellow metal is still very much on consumers’ minds. Just-released gold withdrawal numbers from the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) came in at 1,180 tonnes—a huge amount—setting a new record for withdrawals in the first half period and leading many analysts to predict a new annual record.

China-on-track-for-new-annual-record-gold-withdrawals
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Gold demand in China normally cools around this time before picking up momentum in anticipation of the Chinese New Year. That demand has held up so well is a good sign for the second half of the year.

Even though gold’s down about 3 percent year-to-date, our Gold and Precious Metals Fund (USERX) is holding up. USERX currently has four stars overall from Morningstar, among 71 Equity Precious Metals funds as of 6/30/2015, based on risk-adjusted returns. This is a testament to the management skills of portfolio manager Ralph Aldis and our team of analysts. Check out Ralph’s MoneyShow interview, where he chats about some of his favorite gold companies.

The MoneyShow San Francisco

Last week I was in San Francisco attending the three-day MoneyShow conference, where I presented. If you weren’t able to make it, you can watch the presentation on-demand on your computer, tablet or smartphone by registering at eMoneyShow. The event will be available on-demand until August 8.

Please consider carefully a fund’s investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses. For this and other important information, obtain a fund prospectus by visiting www.usfunds.com or by calling 1-800-US-FUNDS (1-800-873-8637). Read it carefully before investing. Distributed by U.S. Global Brokerage, Inc.

Total Annualized Returns as of 6/30/2015
Fund Year to Date One-Year Five-Year Ten-Year Gross Expense Ratio Expense Cap
Gold and Precious Metals Fund 6.40% -28.42% -15.80% 1.62% 1.97% 1.90%

Expense ratios as stated in the most recent prospectus. The expense cap is a voluntary limit on total fund operating expenses (exclusive of any acquired fund fees and expenses, performance fees, extraordinary expenses, taxes, brokerage commissions and interest) that U.S. Global Investors, Inc. can modify or terminate at any time, which may lower a fund’s yield or return. Performance data quoted above is historical. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Results reflect the reinvestment of dividends and other earnings. For a portion of periods, the fund had expense limitations, without which returns would have been lower. Current performance may be higher or lower than the performance data quoted. The principal value and investment return of an investment will fluctuate so that your shares, when redeemed, may be worth more or less than their original cost. Performance does not include the effect of any direct fees described in the fund’s prospectus which, if applicable, would lower your total returns. Performance quoted for periods of one year or less is cumulative and not annualized. Obtain performance data current to the most recent month-end at www.usfunds.com or 1-800-US-FUNDS.

Morningstar Rating

Overall/71
3-Year/71
5-Year/68
10-Year/51

Morningstar ratings based on risk-adjusted return and number of funds
Category: Equity Precious Metals
Through: 6/30/2015

Morningstar Ratings are based on risk-adjusted return. The Morningstar Rating for a fund is derived from a weighted-average of the performance figures associated with its three-, five- and ten-year Morningstar Rating metrics. Past performance does not guarantee future results. For each fund with at least a three-year history, Morningstar calculates a Morningstar Rating based on a Morningstar Risk-Adjusted Return measure that accounts for variation in a fund’s monthly performance (including the effects of sales charges, loads, and redemption fees), placing more emphasis on downward variations and rewarding consistent performance. The top 10% of funds in each category receive 5 stars, the next 22.5% receive 4 stars, the next 35% receive 3 stars, the next 22.5% receive 2 stars and the bottom 10% receive 1 star. (Each share class is counted as a fraction of one fund within this scale and rated separately, which may cause slight variations in the distribution percentages.)

Gold, precious metals, and precious minerals funds may be susceptible to adverse economic, political or regulatory developments due to concentrating in a single theme. The prices of gold, precious metals, and precious minerals are subject to substantial price fluctuations over short periods of time and may be affected by unpredicted international monetary and political policies. We suggest investing no more than 5% to 10% of your portfolio in these sectors.

The S&P GSCI Spot index tracks the price of the nearby futures contracts for a basket of commodities.

The J.P. Morgan Global Purchasing Manager’s Index is an indicator of the economic health of the global manufacturing sector. The PMI index is based on five major indicators: new orders, inventory levels, production, supplier deliveries and the employment environment.

The U.S. Trade Weighted Dollar Index provides a general indication of the international value of the U.S. dollar.

Fund portfolios are actively managed, and holdings may change daily. Holdings are reported as of the most recent quarter-end. Holdings in the Gold and Precious Metals Fund as a percentage of net assets as of 6/30/2015: Baker Hughes Inc. 0.00%, Barrick Gold Corp. 0.03%.

All opinions expressed and data provided are subject to change without notice. Some of these opinions may not be appropriate to every investor. By clicking the link(s) above, you will be directed to a third-party website(s). U.S. Global Investors does not endorse all information supplied by this/these website(s) and is not responsible for its/their content.

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Global Investors: You Should Be Paying Attention to this Economic Indicator
July 13, 2015

Reality set in for investors last week: Tremors are shaking up the global markets.

A “no” vote from the Greek referendum last Sunday, the vast stock market selloff in China, and the volatile movements in the price of U.S. crude oil have made it clear the worldwide economy is collectively riding the brakes. The 3.5-hour halt in trading on the NYSE also added to investors’ unease.

It's been hard to ignore the wild market headlines this week.

Last week on BNN TV, Canada’s leading business station, I explained that an important forward-looking economic indicator we closely monitor at U.S. Global Investors can help make sense of this slowdown: the global manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI), which we've written about many times. Coupled with this, our portfolio managers recognize that during highly volatile markets adjusting cash levels in our funds is key.

In addition to our own macro models, BCA Research , a highly respected independent research company, pointed out that PMIs in developing economies have plunged to new lows.  The International Monetary Fund also revised downward its global growth forecast for 2015. On this account, bad news is good news, as central bankers are scrambling to stimulate economic growth.

Emerging Markets Manufacturing PMI is Plunging
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As active managers, we have raised our cash levels looking for opportunities in a sloppy market, particularly in our China Region Fund (USCOX). This allows us to mitigate risk and deploy that cash when stocks look attractive per our model, which focuses on factors like high returns on invested capital, sales per share growth and dividend per share growth.

The Trend is Your Friend

It’s common for investors to look at gross domestic product (GDP) when making decisions about how to deploy capital. Unlike GDP, which looks back or in the rearview mirror, PMI is forward-looking. PMI gathers data such as global output, new orders, exports, prices and employment, making it a reliable indicator for both commodity performance and business activity. ISM, or Manufacturing Institute for Supply Management, is the U.S.-specific calculation of PMI.

Take a look at global PMI. It has continued on a three-month downtrend for the month of June.

Global Manufacturing PMI Continues Its Downtrend
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Similarly, PMI in the U.S. peaked seven months ago but has since been modestly declining. The threat of rising rates has been a contributing factor, and although Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen stated Friday that the U.S. is on track to raise rates in September, many agree that this date is too soon.

U.S. Manufacturing PMI Declines After Peak
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Card Counting: Using the PMI Pattern to Your Investing Advantage

Understanding PMI is one way investors can use patterns to improve their chances of positive returns in the market – just like card counting in a game of Blackjack.

When looking at PMIs, a reading of 50 or above indicates manufacturing expansion, while a reading below 50 indicates a slowing economy. PMIs for individual countries like China and Greece are negative right now, meaning that manufacturing activity is contracting.

Our investment team’s research has shown that when the one-month reading crossed below the three-month trend, there was a significant probability that materials, energy and commodities would fall six months later. Conversely, when it crossed above, manufacturing activity would ramp up, which greatly improved the performance of commodities such as copper and crude oil, along with the materials and energy sectors.

Commodities and Commodity Stocks Historically Rose Six Months After PMI "Cross-Above"
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The Great Shift in Seasonal Oil

As I explain in our Managing Expectations whitepaper, using seasonal patterns, along with global PMI, is another way to understand trends in the market and the world at large.

Historically, the hurricane season in August/September has shut down the supply of oil offshore, leading to a peak in relative price around this time. But as you can see in the chart below, the new technology of fracking and a corresponding increase of U.S. onshore production, have led to a surplus, drastically shifting the shorter-term seasonal pattern in oil.

U.S. Manufacturing PMI Declines After Peak
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Staying Nimble During Changing Landscapes

Professor of Mathematics at the University of Oxford, Marcus du Sautoy, said it best:

“Although the world looks messy and chaotic, if you translate it into the world of numbers and shapes, patterns emerge and you start to understand why things are the way they are.”

The global markets right now indeed appear “messy and chaotic,” but curious investors and fund managers realize that specific tools and patterns help them navigate through the complexity and intensity of constantly changing landscapes.

In fact, it is the agile active management and the use of these investment tools that landed two of our funds in Investor’s Business Daily’s “Weekly Review” section last week.  This particular section of IBD is a screened list of top-rated stocks for the week, along with the top-performing funds that own these particular stocks. Our Holmes Macro Trends Fund (MEGAX) and Global Resources Fund (PSPFX) are recognized for owning nine of these top stocks.

Subscribing to our award-winning Investor Alert newsletter is one way investors can stay on top of geopolitical and economic events that could affect their investments.  We’d really appreciate it if you’d share our publication with your friends and colleagues!

Please consider carefully a fund’s investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses. For this and other important information, obtain a fund prospectus by visiting www.usfunds.com or by calling 1-800-US-FUNDS (1-800-873-8637). Read it carefully before investing. Distributed by U.S. Global Brokerage, Inc.

Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Foreign and emerging market investing involves special risks such as currency fluctuation and less public disclosure, as well as economic and political risk. By investing in a specific geographic region, a regional fund’s returns and share price may be more volatile than those of a less concentrated portfolio. Because the Global Resources Fund concentrates its investments in specific industries, the fund may be subject to greater risks and fluctuations than a portfolio representing a broader range of industries. Stock markets can be volatile and share prices can fluctuate in response to sector-related and other risks as described in the fund prospectus.

The Purchasing Manager’s Index is an indicator of the economic health of the manufacturing sector. The PMI index is based on five major indicators: new orders, inventory levels, production, supplier deliveries and the employment environment.

The S&P 500 Energy Index is a capitalization-weighted index that tracks the companies in the energy sector as a subset of the S&P 500. The S&P 500 Materials Index is a capitalization-weighted index that tracks the companies in the material sector as a subset of the S&P 500.

All opinions expressed and data provided are subject to change without notice. Some of these opinions may not be appropriate to every investor. By clicking the link(s) above, you will be directed to a third-party website(s). U.S. Global Investors does not endorse all information supplied by this/these website(s) and is not responsible for its/their content.

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$8 Trillion Alternative Energy Boom Is a Win for Copper
June 29, 2015

Here’s a bit of energizing news: In 2014, for the first time in four decades, the global economy grew along with energy demand without an increase in global carbon emissions.

That’s according to energy policy group REN21’s just-released Renewables 2015 Global Status Report, which attributes this stabilization to “increased penetration of renewable energy and to improvements in energy efficiency.”

What this means is that as the world’s population continues to grow, and as more people in developing and emerging countries gain access to electricity, the role alternative energy sources such as wind, solar and geothermal play should skyrocket. Between now and 2040, a massive $8 trillion will be spent globally on renewables, about two thirds of all energy spending, according to Bloomberg New Energy Finance. Solar power alone is expected to draw $3.7 trillion.

$8 Trillion in Renewable Energy Spending by 2040. A Boon for Copper.

This is good news indeed for copper, necessary for the conduction of electricity in all energy technologies, whether they be traditional or alternative. The use of some carbon-emitting fossil fuels—coal, for instance—will likely drop off over the years, but copper will remain an irreplaceable component in our ever-expanding energy needs.

Global copper consumption is poised to increase not just because electricity demand is growing. New energy technologies typically require more of the red metal than traditional sources. Each megawatt of wind power capacity, for instance, uses an average of 3.6 tonnes of copper. Electric trolleys, buses and subway cars use about 2,300 pounds of copper apiece. Where we’ll see the most significant growth, though, is in the production of hybrid and electric cars, which use two to three times more copper than internal combustion engines.

Each NEw Generation of Car Needs More Copper Wiring
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Leading the way in electric vehicle technologies, of course, is billionaire entrepreneur Elon Musk’s Tesla Motors, whose $5-billion Gigafactory is currently under construction in Reno, Nevada. When production begins on its lithium-ion batteries, it will consume biblical amounts of base metals and other raw materials—so much, in fact, that some analysts question whether world supply can meet demand. Besides needing a constant stream of lithium and nickel, the factory will consume a staggering 17 million tonnes of copper, 7,000 tonnes of cobalt (today, worldwide supply is 110,000 tonnes), 25,000 tonnes of lithium (about a fifth of worldwide supply), and 126,000 tonnes of raw graphite (a little over a third of global supply). To keep up with such demand, nine new graphite mines will reportedly need to be opened.

This should come as welcome news for industry-leading base metals mining companies Freeport-McMoRan, Rio Tinto, Lundin Mining and Glencore, the last one of which we own in our Global Resources Fund (PSPFX).

Airlines Stocks Could Climb as High as 50 Percent

Solar Impusle 2

Automobiles aren’t the only types of transportation that are looking to renewables. The world’s first circumnavigation of the globe by an aircraft powered entirely by the sun is in its third month. The wings of Solar Impulse 2, whose span comes slightly under that of an Airbus A380, is covered by over 11,600 photovoltaic cells. Next year, Alaska Airlines plans to demonstrate a flight using only renewable jet fuel made from forest residues.

As for the entire airline industry, a recent Barron’s article announces that within 12 months, shares of the nation’s top four carriers could rise as much as 50 percent. Among the changes that “have left the industry in the best financial shape in decades,” according to Barron’s, are “consolidation, cost cuts and fee hikes,” not to mention cheaper fuel.

Manufacturing in China Declining, but Eurozone Could Pick Up the Slack

To be sure, copper and other base metals face some strong headwinds right now, not least of which is the strong U.S. dollar. As you can see, the red metal and the greenback have an inverse relationship.

Under Pressure: U.S. dollar Continues to Weigh on Copper
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The Thomson Reuters GFMS Survey estimates that the incentive price for new copper production is $3.50 per pound, a level unseen since March 2013. Although global copper mine production increased around 1.5 percent year-over-year in the first quarter of 2015, we might see a copper supply deficit in the next 10 years.

Many base metals, copper especially, rely heavily on orders from China, the top purchaser of the red metal. The world’s second biggest economy accounts for 40 percent of all copper consumption, but this figure might be threatened the longer its manufacturing sector remains at lukewarm levels. Although the preliminary purchasing manager’s index (PMI) reading rose slightly in June to 49.6, it’s still below the important expansion threshold of 50.

China's Manufacturing Output Stabalizes as New Order Improves SLightly
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About 60 percent of the copper China purchases goes toward the property sector, an area that’s finally starting to show signs of life after almost a year of falling prices.

A bright spot for copper demand, however, is the eurozone, whose own flash PMI hit a 49-month high of 54.1. The expansion was led by Germany and France, which saw output rising at its sharpest rate since August 2011.

Flash Eurozone Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) Hits Four-Year High in June
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Copper Keeping It Cool for Billions Around the World

In the coming years, more and more people all over the globe will gain access to electricity, a growing percentage of which we will derive from renewable sources. In an interview with The Gold Report, my friend Gianni Kovacevic—whose 2014 book, My Electrician Drives a Porsche?, is an indispensable and entertaining resource on this topic—reminds us that by 2035, nearly two billion people will have an electricity bill for the first time.

Think about the impact that will have on all of our resources. Many of these people live close to the equator. When they begin to have more wealth, they live in more comfort. One of the first things they acquire is an air conditioning unit, or a refrigerator as they eat a protein-based diet. However, whether it’s a need or a want, the backbone of their future consumption footprint is energy, and, more specifically, electricity.

And along for the ride, whether in fossil-fuel power plants or wind turbines, will be copper.

Please consider carefully a fund’s investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses. For this and other important information, obtain a fund prospectus by visiting www.usfunds.com or by calling 1-800-US-FUNDS (1-800-873-8637). Read it carefully before investing. Distributed by U.S. Global Brokerage, Inc.

Foreign and emerging market investing involves special risks such as currency fluctuation and less public disclosure, as well as economic and political risk. Because the Global Resources Fund concentrates its investments in specific industries, the fund may be subject to greater risks and fluctuations than a portfolio representing a broader range of industries.

The Purchasing Manager’s Index is an indicator of the economic health of the manufacturing sector. The PMI index is based on five major indicators: new orders, inventory levels, production, supplier deliveries and the employment environment.The HSBC Flash China Manufacturing PMI is published a week ahead of the final HSBC China PMI every month. It analyzes 85-90 percent of the responses to the Final PMI from purchasing executives in more than 400 small, medium and large manufacturers, both state-owned and private enterprises. The Markit Flash Eurozone PMI is typically based on approximately 85%–90% of total PMI survey responses each month and is designed to provide an accurate advance indication of the final PMI data.

Fund portfolios are actively managed, and holdings may change daily. Holdings are reported as of the most recent quarter-end. Holdings in the Global Resources Fund as a percentage of net assets as of3/31/2015: Tesla Motors Inc. 0.00%, Freeport-McMoRan Inc. 0.00%, Rio Tinto plc 0.00%, Lundin Gold Inc. 0.00%, Glencore plc 2.96%, Airbus Group SE 0.00%, Alaska Air Group Inc. 0.21%.

All opinions expressed and data provided are subject to change without notice. Some of these opinions may not be appropriate to every investor. By clicking the link(s) above, you will be directed to a third-party website(s). U.S. Global Investors does not endorse all information supplied by this/these website(s) and is not responsible for its/their content.

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Clearing Up CNBC's Haze
May 13, 2015

Yesterday on CNBC, I was asked about my investment firm’s previous investment in Uranium One, “Were you in a position to benefit from approval of this deal at the same time that you were writing checks to the Clinton Foundation?” 

My answer was clear. I said, “No.”

It would be unusual for any Chief Investment Officer to recall from memory the specific dates of ownership of an individual security among thousands of investments over a decade-long time period. I was not asked to provide this detailed information in advance. Nevertheless, while I was being bombarded with questions from three different anchors, what I said was absolutely correct:  U.S. Global Investors invested in Uranium One early and sold it long before the events in question by CNBC and other media sources. The graphic that CNBC showed on-screen during my interview included a single, incomplete factoid.

These are the facts and the timeline:

  • U.S. Global Investors, a firm that specializes in commodities and natural resources, first invested in Uranium One’s predecessor, UrAsia Energy Ltd. in 2005.
  • UrAsia was acquired by Uranium One in 2007.
  • U.S. Global Investors sold all positions in Uranium One in 2007.
  • U.S. Global Investors did not hold any positions in Uranium One in 2008, 2009 or 2010, the year the Uranium One acquisition by ARMZ was approved by the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States.
  • U.S. Global Investors re-invested in the company in the first quarter of 2011 and sold all positions before the end of the second quarter of 2011. We exited the position when uranium prices began to decline after news of the Japanese nuclear tragedy.
  • As one can see from the charts below, our investments in uranium reflect the historical price movements of the heavy metal.

Uranium Oxide Price per Pound
click to enlarge

Uranium Oxide Price per Pound
click to enlarge

When I give educational workshops to investors I always talk about the importance of gratitude. Giving back to those less fortunate is how I demonstrate gratitude. Gratitude is the single driving force behind U.S. Global’s charitable contributions.  We have a long history of charitable contributions to many organizations. The Clinton Foundation is only one on a long and varied list.

As I said during my appearance on CNBC, our donations to Clinton charitable organizations and our investments in Uranium One are separate events. One has nothing to do with the other. Any claims to the contrary are not only offensive, but patently false.

Anyone can access public filings of our fund holdings and can confirm the facts for themselves. https://www.sec.gov/edgar/searchedgar/mutualsearch.htm

Share “Clearing Up CNBC's Haze”

Net Asset Value
as of 09/25/2017

Global Resources Fund PSPFX $5.78 -0.04 Gold and Precious Metals Fund USERX $8.02 0.06 World Precious Minerals Fund UNWPX $6.69 0.06 China Region Fund USCOX $10.96 -0.46 Emerging Europe Fund EUROX $6.94 -0.06 All American Equity Fund GBTFX $24.34 0.10 Holmes Macro Trends Fund MEGAX $19.99 0.03 Near-Term Tax Free Fund NEARX $2.23 No Change U.S. Government Securities Ultra-Short Bond Fund UGSDX $2.00 No Change