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Please note: The Frank Talk articles listed below contain historical material. The data provided was current at the time of publication. For current information regarding any of the funds mentioned in these presentations, please visit the appropriate fund performance page.

Why Bad News Is Good News in Europe—7 Charts Showing What You Really Need to Know
February 23, 2015

There’s little denying that the U.S. economy is on the upswing since the recession. Manufacturing is strong, jobless claims are falling and wages are rising. Delta Air Lines, which we own in our Holmes Macro Trends Fund (MEGAX), recently announced that it will be giving its 80,000 employees $1.1 billion in profit sharing, while Wal-Mart, held in our All American Equity Fund (GBTFX), unveiled plans to hike its minimum wage to $9 an hour in April.

Indeed, things are shaping up here in the U.S., but unfortunately this has not been the case in Europe. From Greek drama to Russian aggression, bad news seems to be the order of the day.

Until now.

Because of central banks’ monetary easing, weakening currencies and low fuel costs—courtesy of the American fracking boom—Europe is finally showing signs that it’s ready to turn the corner and set a path toward lasting economic recovery.

Europe-Recovery-Globe

1. Emerging Europe PMIs Swinging Up

The Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), as I’ve often said, is a highly effective tool that we use to forecast manufacturing activity six months out. Any reading above 50 indicates growth in manufacturing; anything below, contraction. This allows us to manage our expectations and get a good sense of where to position our funds.

As you can see, the European Union (EU) as a whole has recently improved, but emerging countries such as the Czech Republic, Poland and Hungary are posting very solid numbers in the mid-50s range. Much of this is due to low fuel costs and weaker currencies, which make exports more attractive.

Purchasing-Managers-Index-PMI-European-Union-vs-Emerging-Europe-Countries
click to enlarge

2. Growth in the Eurozone Is Good for the Globe

Our investment team’s research has shown that when the one-month reading for the global PMI crossed below the three-month moving average, there was a significant probability that materials, energy and commodities would fall six months later. Conversely, when it crossed above, manufacturing activity would ramp up, which greatly improved the performance of commodities such as copper and crude oil, not to mention the materials and energy sectors.

Commodities-and-Commodity-Stocks-Historically-Rose-Fell-Six-Months-After-PMI-Cross-Above-Below
click to enlarge

It’s very welcome news, then, to see growth in the eurozone, since its PMI readings are factored into the global score. Last week we learned that the preliminary Flash Eurozone PMI advanced to 53.5 for the month of February. This is huge. Not only is it a seven-month high for the eurozone, but it’s also nearly in line with the U.S. reading, which came in at 54.3. Even France—a perennial and disappointing laggard in manufacturing—posted its best results in three-and-a-half years.

3. Surprise! Europe Is Beating Expectations

The Citi Economic Surprise Index, simply put, tells you if a country or region’s economic news is beating—or, conversely, falling below—analysts’ expectations. The higher the number, the more it indicates that economic data is exceeding forecasts.

Eurozone-Economic-News-Beating-Expectations-While-the-US-Trailing-Expectations
click to enlarge

You can see above where the eurozone has surprised consensus. For most of 2014, the region was in a declining trend, whereas the U.S. was headed higher. More recently, though, we’ve seen a huge advancement in Europe, despite negative news coming out of areas such as Greece—which last week managed to strike a deal with its euro-partners to extend the Mediterranean country’s bailout program by four months.

4. GDP Growing

If you look at Europe’s GDP as a whole, it’s expected to grow slightly over 1 percent in 2015. But the GDP in Eastern European countries such as the Czech Republic, Romania, Poland and Hungary is expected to grow double that or more.

Central-Eastern-European-CEE-Countries-GDP-Growth-Outperforms
click to enlarge

These countries are benefiting from the broad recovery, for sure, but they also have their own dynamics. As emerging markets, they have more room to run and grow. 

5. No Lack of Confidence in Consumption

Another sign that the European recovery is underway is the recent uptick in spending habits. Not only does the consumer confidence index (CCI) for the eurozone far exceed its long-term average, but it’s also at its highest reading since soon before the financial crisis.

Eurozone-Consumer-Confidence-at-89-Month-High
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6. Russia, the Not-So-Bad News Bear?

Nearly every day we’re reminded of Russia’s political and financial troubles, but the worst is likely behind us. It appears as if Russia’s market and currency, the ruble, bottomed in mid-December. This is also the first time since the summer that the MICEX Index crossed above its 50-day moving average, breaking through resistance.

Russian-MICEX-Index
click to enlarge

The situation in Ukraine is not pretty, but global investors understand it and are getting comfortable putting their money in Russia again because it’s inexpensive. The bad news has been priced in, and it looks as if the market is willing to move higher.

Russian credit default swaps (CDS) are also looking better. CDSs allow sellers to assume and buyers to reduce default risk on a bond. The swap spreads improved in February, indicating the market is looking past current events such as international sanctions and the ceasefire in Ukraine and seeing Russia’s risk declining in the future.   

7. Low Valuations, High Dividend Yields

Emerging European equities, like Russian stocks, are trading at a big discount relative to those in U.S. and Western European markets. 

Emerging Europe Cheap Relative to Developed Markets
Country Index P/E Ratio Dividend Yield
Western Europe Stoxx 600 23.6 3.6%
United States S&P 500 Index 18.4 2.0%
Poland WIG 20 15.5 3.9%
Romania Bucharest BET Index 9.9 3.6%
Turkey BIST 100 Index 9.6 1.8%
Russia MICEX Index 9.0 4.1%

Many of the emerging European countries are currently trading at less than 10 times. Therefore, you get that winning combination of low valuation and high dividend yield.

We’re definitely starting to see the early signs that Europe is reflating its economy. Attractive PMI data, positive economic surprises and growing consumer confidence all point to a strong recovery, one that should bode well for global investors in general and our Emerging Europe Fund (EUROX) specifically. 

In case you missed this week’s webcast on this very topic, you can still listen to the replay on demand and download the slideshow.

Please consider carefully a fund’s investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses. For this and other important information, obtain a fund prospectus by visiting www.usfunds.com or by calling 1-800-US-FUNDS (1-800-873-8637). Read it carefully before investing. Distributed by U.S. Global Brokerage, Inc.

Stock markets can be volatile and share prices can fluctuate in response to sector-related and other risks as described in the fund prospectus.

Foreign and emerging market investing involves special risks such as currency fluctuation and less public disclosure, as well as economic and political risk. By investing in a specific geographic region, a regional fund’s returns and share price may be more volatile than those of a less concentrated portfolio. The Emerging Europe Fund invests more than 25% of its investments in companies principally engaged in the oil & gas or banking industries.  The risk of concentrating investments in this group of industries will make the fund more susceptible to risk in these industries than funds which do not concentrate their investments in an industry and may make the fund’s performance more volatile.

The J.P. Morgan Global Purchasing Manager’s Index is an indicator of the economic health of the global manufacturing sector. The PMI index is based on five major indicators: new orders, inventory levels, production, supplier deliveries and the employment environment.

The Eurozone Purchasing Managers' Index is produced by Markit and is based on original survey data collected from a representative panel of around 5,000 companies based in the euro area manufacturing and service sectors. National manufacturing data are included for Germany, France, Italy, Spain, the Netherlands, Austria, the Republic of Ireland and Greece. National services data are included for Germany, France, Italy, Spain and the Republic of Ireland. The flash estimate is typically based on approximately 85%–90% of total PMI survey responses each month and is designed to provide an accurate advance indication of the final PMI data.

The S&P 500 Materials Index is a capitalization-weighted index that tracks the companies in the material sector as a subset of the S&P 500.

The S&P 500 Energy Index is a capitalization-weighted index that tracks the companies in the energy sector as a subset of the S&P 500.

The Citigroup Economic Surprise Indices are objective and quantitative measures of economic news. They are defined as weighted historical standard deviations of data surprises (actual releases vs Bloomberg survey median). A positive reading of the Economic Surprise Index suggests that economic releases have on balance been beating consensus. The indices are calculated daily in a rolling three-month window.

The Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) is an indicator which measures consumer confidence in the Economy.

The MICEX Index is the real-time cap-weighted Russian composite index.  It comprises 30 most liquid stocks of Russian largest and most developed companies from 10 main economy sectors.  The MICEX Index was launched on September 22, 1997, base value 100.  The MICEX Index is calculated and disseminated by the MICEX Stock Exchange, the main Russian stock exchange.

The STOXX 600 Banks (Price) Index (SX7P) is a capitalization-weighted index which includes European companies that are involved in the bank sector. 

The S&P 500 Stock Index is a widely recognized capitalization-weighted index of 500 common stock prices in U.S. companies.

The WIG20 Index is a modified capitalization-weighted index of 20 Polish stocks which as listed on the main market. The index is the underlying instrument for futures transactions listed on the Warsaw Stock Exchange.

The Bucharest Exchange Trading Index (BET) is a capitalization weighted index, comprised of the 10 most liquid stocks listed on the BSE tier 1. The index is a Price index and was developed with a base value of 1000 as of September 22, 1997.

The Borsa Istanbul 100 Index is a capitalization-weighted index composed of National Market companies except investment trusts. The constituents of the BIST National 100 Index are selected on the basis of pre-determined criteria directed for the companies to be included in the indices.

Fund portfolios are actively managed, and holdings may change daily. Holdings are reported as of the most recent quarter-end. Holdings in the All American Equity Fund, Holmes Macro Trends Fund and Emerging Europe Fund as a percentage of net assets as of 12/31/2014: Delta Air Lines, Inc. 1.28% Holmes Macro Trends Fund; Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. 1.14% All American Equity Fund.

All opinions expressed and data provided are subject to change without notice. Some of these opinions may not be appropriate to every investor.

There is no guarantee that the issuers of any securities will declare dividends in the future or that, if declared, will remain at current levels or increase over time.

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Currency Wars Heat up as Central Banks Race to Cut Rates
February 2, 2015

Frank Holmes in Zurich holding a gold barThe Chinese Year of the Ram will kick off at the end of this month, but for now it looks as if 2015 will be the Year of the Central Banks.

I spend a lot of time talking about gold, oil and emerging markets, and it’s important to recognize what drives these asset classes’ performance. Government and fiscal policy often have much to do with it. But in the past three months, we’ve seen central banks take center stage to engage in a new currency war: a race to the bottom of the exchange rate in an attempt to weaken their own currencies and undercut competitor nations.

Indeed, amid rock-bottom oil prices, deflation fears and slowing growth, policymakers from every corner of the globe are enacting some sort of monetary easing program. Last month alone, 14 countries cut rates and loosened borrowing standards, the most recent one being Russia.

A weak currency makes export prices more competitive and can help give inflation a boost, among other benefits.

“The U.S. seems to be the only country right now that doesn’t mind having a strong currency,” says John Derrick, Director of Research here at U.S. Global Investors.

Since July, major currencies have fallen more than 15 percent against the greenback.

U.S. Dollar CLimbing HIgher Against Other World Currencies
click to enlarge

Two weeks ago, Switzerland’s central bank surprised markets by unpegging the Swiss franc from the euro in an attempt to protect its currency, known as a safe haven, against a sliding European bill. Its 10-year bond yield then retreated into negative territory, meaning investors are essentially paying the government to lend it money.

This and other monetary shifts have huge effects on commodities, specifically gold. As I told Resource Investing News last week:

Gold is money. And whenever there’s negative real interest rates, gold in those currencies start to rise. Whenever interest rates are positive, and the government will pay you more than inflation, then gold falls in that country’s currency. Last year, only the U.S. dollar had positive real rates of return. All the other countries had negative real rates of return, so gold performed exceptionally well.

Other countries whose central banks have enacted monetary easing are Canada, India, Turkey, Denmark and Singapore, not to mention the European Central Bank (ECB), which recently unveiled a much-needed trillion-dollar stimulus package.

U.S. Dollar CLimbing HIgher Against Other World Currencies

Gold bears are puzzled as hedge funds raise bullish gold bets.A recent BCA Research report forecasts that as a result of quantitative easing (QE), a weak euro and low oil prices, the eurozone should grow “by about 2 percentage points over the next two years, taking growth from the current level of 1 percent to around 3 percent. This is well above the range of any mainstream forecast.” The report continues: “[European] banks, in particular, are likely to outperform, as they will be the direct beneficiaries of rising credit demand, falling default rates and the ECB’s efforts to reflate asset prices.” This bodes well for our Emerging Europe Fund (EUROX), which is overweight financials.

Speaking of oil, the current average price of a gallon of gas, according to AAA’s Daily Fuel Gauge Report, is $2.05. But in the UK, where I visited last week, it’s over $6. That’s actually down from $9 in June. You can see why Brits don’t drive trucks and SUVs.

But that’s the power of currencies. As illustrated by the clever image of a Chinese panda crushing an American eagle, China’s economy surpassed our own late last year, based on purchasing-power parity (PPP).

China's Economy Surpasses the U.S.'s Based on Purchasing Power Parity
click to enlarge

Burgerology: Price of a Big Mac as of 2015Financial columnist Brett Arends puts it into perspective just how huge this development really is: “For the first time since Ulysses S. Grant was president, America is not the leading economic power on the planet.”

An easier way to comprehend PPP is by using The Economist’s Big Mac Index, a “lighthearted guide to whether currencies are at their ‘correct’ level.” The index takes into account the price of McDonald’s signature sandwich in several countries and compares it to the price of one here in the U.S. to determine whether those currencies are undervalued or overvalued. A Big Mac in China, for instance, costs $2.77, suggesting the yuan is undervalued by 42 percent. The same burger in Switzerland will set you back $7.54, making the franc overvalued by 57 percent. 

Earning More in a Low Interest Rate World

From what we know, the Federal Reserve is the only central bank in the world that’s considering raising rates sometime this year, having ended its own QE program in October.

Last month we learned that the Consumer Price Index (CPI), or the cost of living, fell 0.4 percent in December, its biggest decline in over six years. We’re not alone, as the rest of the world is also bracing for deflation:

Global Consumer Price Index (CPI) Trends
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Following Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s announcement last Wednesday, the bond market rallied, pushing the 10-year yield to a 20-month low.

U.S. 10-Year Bond Yield Dips to a 20-Month Low
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Interest rates remain at historic lows, where they might very well stay this year. But when they do begin to rise—whenever that will be—shorter-term bond funds offer more protection than longer-term bond funds. That’s basic risk management. We always encourage investors to understand the DNA of volatility. Every asset class has its own unique characteristics. For example:

The Longer the Maturity, the Greater the Price Volatiity
click to enlarge

Our Near-Term Tax Free Fund (NEARX) invests in shorter-term municipal bonds, thereby taking off some of the risk if the Fed decides to raise rates this year. We’re very proud of this fund, as it’s delivered 20 years of consistent positive returns. Among 25,000 equity and bond funds in the U.S., only 30 have achieved the feat of giving investors positive returns for the same duration, according to Lipper.

That equates to a rare 0.1 percent, roughly the same probability that your son or grandson will be drafted into the NFL and play in the Super Bowl.

In the past 30 years, we’ve experienced massive volatility in both the equity and bond markets, and we’re thrilled for our shareholders that we’ve been able to deliver such a stellar product, under the expert management of John Derrick. What’s more, NEARX continues to maintain its coveted 5-star overall rating from Morningstar, among 173 Municipal National Short-Term funds as of 12/31/2014, based on risk-adjusted return. If you are in Orlando next week, come by the World Money Show to hear John talk about the fund’s history of success. The event is free and my team would love to meet you at booth 514.

Request more information on NEARX today!

 

Upcoming Webcast

To those who listened in on our last webcast, “Bad News Is Good News: A Contrarian Case for Commodities,” we hope you enjoyed it and received some good, actionable insight. If you weren’t able to join us, you can watch the webcast at your convenience on demand. Our next webcast is coming up February 18 and will focus on emerging markets, China in particular. We hope you’ll join us! We’ll be sharing a registration link soon.

Please consider carefully a fund’s investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses. For this and other important information, obtain a fund prospectus by visiting www.usfunds.com or by calling 1-800-US-FUNDS (1-800-873-8637). Read it carefully before investing. Distributed by U.S. Global Brokerage, Inc.

Morningstar Rating

     Overall/173
     3-Year/173
     5-Year/142
    10-Year/103

Morningstar ratings based on risk-adjusted return and number of funds
Category: Municipal National Short-term funds
Through: 12/31/2014

Morningstar Ratings are based on risk-adjusted return. The Morningstar Rating for a fund is derived from a weighted-average of the performance figures associated with its three-, five- and ten-year Morningstar Rating metrics. Past performance does not guarantee future results. For each fund with at least a three-year history, Morningstar calculates a Morningstar Rating based on a Morningstar Risk-Adjusted Return measure that accounts for variation in a fund’s monthly performance (including the effects of sales charges, loads, and redemption fees), placing more emphasis on downward variations and rewarding consistent performance. The top 10% of funds in each category receive 5 stars, the next 22.5% receive 4 stars, the next 35% receive 3 stars, the next 22.5% receive 2 stars and the bottom 10% receive 1 star. (Each share class is counted as a fraction of one fund within this scale and rated separately, which may cause slight variations in the distribution percentages.)

Bond funds are subject to interest-rate risk; their value declines as interest rates rise. Though the Near-Term Tax Free Fund seeks minimal fluctuations in share price, it is subject to the risk that the credit quality of a portfolio holding could decline, as well as risk related to changes in the economic conditions of a state, region or issuer. These risks could cause the fund’s share price to decline. Tax-exempt income is federal income tax free. A portion of this income may be subject to state and local taxes and at times the alternative minimum tax. The Near-Term Tax Free Fund may invest up to 20% of its assets in securities that pay taxable interest. Income or fund distributions attributable to capital gains are usually subject to both state and federal income taxes.

Foreign and emerging market investing involves special risks such as currency fluctuation and less public disclosure, as well as economic and political risk. By investing in a specific geographic region, a regional fund’s returns and share price may be more volatile than those of a less concentrated portfolio. The Emerging Europe Fund invests more than 25% of its investments in companies principally engaged in the oil & gas or banking industries.  The risk of concentrating investments in this group of industries will make the fund more susceptible to risk in these industries than funds which do not concentrate their investments in an industry and may make the fund’s performance more volatile.

Although Lipper makes reasonable efforts to ensure the accuracy and reliability of the data contained herein, the accuracy is not guaranteed by Lipper. Users acknowledge that they have not relied upon any warranty, condition, guarantee, or representation made by Lipper. Any use of the data for analyzing, managing, or trading financial instruments is at the user's own risk. This is not an offer to buy or sell securities.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is one of the most widely recognized price measures for tracking the price of a market basket of goods and services purchased by individuals.  The weights of components are based on consumer spending patterns.

Fund portfolios are actively managed, and holdings may change daily. Holdings are reported as of the most recent quarter-end. Holdings in the Emerging Europe Fund and Near-Term Tax Free Fund as a percentage of net assets as of 12/31/2015: McDonald’s Corp. 0.00%.

All opinions expressed and data provided are subject to change without notice. Some of these opinions may not be appropriate to every investor. By clicking the link(s) above, you will be directed to a third-party website(s). U.S. Global Investors does not endorse all information supplied by this/these website(s) and is not responsible for its/their content.

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There’s More to the Gold Rally Than European Market Fears
January 27, 2015

Gold is having a spectacular run so far this year.Gold was down 1.72 percent at the end of 2014, but things are looking up for the yellow metal. Last week I returned from presenting at the Vancouver Resource Investment Conference, where sentiment for gold was through the roof.

And with good reason. Even though gold was down last year, it still ranked as the second-best-performing currency, following the U.S. dollar. The metal has risen about 10 percent year-to-date, and last Tuesday, for the first time since mid-August, it broke through the $1,300 mark.

Are you excited yet?

Our two gold funds, the Gold and Precious Metals Fund (USERX) and World Precious Minerals Fund (UNWPX), have responded positively to the rally. Both have jumped above their 50-day moving averages, a key trend indicator many investors use to decide when to allocate assets.

Gold and Precious Metals Fund (USERX) Breaks Out
click to enlarge

World Precious Minerals Fund (UNWPX) Breaks Out
click to enlarge

You’ve probably heard or read that gold’s breakout is a direct result of what’s currently happening in Europe, but there’s much more to the story.

To be clear, the events I’m referring to are a huge deal and shouldn’t be discounted. As we say at U.S. Global Investors, government policy is a precursor to change, and certainly gold has struck a musical chord in the world of currency symphonies.

The European Central Bank’s (ECB’s) unveiling of a much-needed, trillion-dollar quantitative easing (QE) program will hopefully lead to a stronger economy in the eurozone. For two years now, it seems the region has held much of the world hostage with its lack of growth.

Switzerland unexpectedly unpegged its currency, the Swiss franc, from the euro, shocking money managers all over the world. The country also let its 10-year government bond yield sink into negative territory, joining Germany, Spain and Italy, whose yields now hover near record lows. This makes other assets, especially gold, look much more attractive.

And in Greece, the radical far-left, anti-austerity Syriza party just took control of the government, sending shockwaves throughout the European markets and raising the possibility that the Mediterranean country might leave or be booted out of the eurozone.

All of these developments have spurred investors to seek safety in gold. But there’s more at work fueling the metal’s ascent.

Currency Wars

As I’ve discussed many times before, the strong U.S. dollar—it’s currently up 2.2 standard deviations for the 10-year period—has not only weighed on crude oil but also caused other global currencies to depreciate. Both have helped many foreign gold producers expand their profit margins, as bullion is then able to gain in value more quickly.

“The Canadian dollar has weakened quite a bit against the U.S. dollar for a lot of our gold stocks in Canada,” Ralph Aldis, portfolio manager of our gold funds, explained during our most recent webcast. “These producers benefit when the local currency depreciates.”

This is because they pay their workers in the weaker local currency but sell their bullion in U.S. dollars.

When expressed in Canadian dollars, gold has sharply ramped up to a nine-month high:

Gold Price in Canadian Dollar Terms
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Gold has also shot upward in Japanese yen and euro terms:

Gold Price in Japanese Yen Terms
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Gold Price in Euro Terms
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A weaker South African rand has been a tailwind for two of our South African holdings, Gold Fields and Harmony Gold Mining. Below you can see that both companies have broken free of their 50-day moving averages—by a much wider spread than we’ve seen since at least March of last year.

Low Fuel Costs and a Weakened Rand Have Benefited South African Godl Producers
click to enlarge

Then there are falling fuel costs, ordinarily gold miners’ biggest expense.

“If you factor in lower energy prices, that basically gives companies a double whammy in terms of margin expansion,” Ralph said.

Headquartered in Toronto, Barrick Gold, the world’s largest gold producer, saves about $25 per ounce on lower diesel expenses, according to BullionVault.

Before it started recovering at the beginning of January, gold had been pretty banged up since mid-August. As a result, companies have slashed capital spending, especially the junior miners.

But recently we’ve seen merger and acquisition (M&A) activity in the gold space, typically a good sign. In late November, Osisko Gold Royalties announced it would buy Quebec City-based Virginia Mines for $424 million, and last week we learned that Vancouver-based Goldcorp will be acquiring precious metals explorer Probe Mines for $440 million. Probe is a relatively new player in the field, having made two discoveries in Ontario since 2009.

This makes sense. If you’re looking to expand your company, you might as well do it when everything’s on sale. But these M&As also indicate that there’s enough confidence in the future of the precious metals industry to justify such capital spending. It says a lot about the market that Goldcorp would agree to purchase a younger exploration company, a move we haven’t seen in a while.

Repatriation Games

This is what largely drives gold demand: confidence in the metal as a store of value, in good times and in bad. Gold is much more than a commodity—it’s a form of currency, one that “has never required the credit guarantee of a third party,” as former Federal Reserve Chair Alan Greenspan made clear in September.

Last year, gold was the second-strongest currency in the world, trailing only the U.S. dollar. It’s amazing how well it held up under the pressure of the greenback. Not just investors but also central banks recognize this.

The Bundesbank, Germany's central bank, repatriated 120 tonnes of gold in 2014.

“If the dollar or any other fiat currency were universally acceptable at all times,” Greenspan said, “central banks would see no need to hold any gold. The fact that they do indicates that such currencies are not a universal substitute.”

Indeed, we’re seeing central banks all around the world shoring up their own gold reserves by repatriating bullion from foreign institutions. December saw the biggest monthly outflow of gold from the New York Fed since 2001, bringing its holdings to their lowest level this century. 

Gold Held in New York Fed Drops to Lowest in 21st Century AFter Biggest Monthly Withdrawal Since 2001
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Central banks might be jittery from global growth concerns—the International Monetary Fund just downgraded its growth forecast for 2015—or simply recognizing the tenuousness of fiat money. Either way, the message is resounding: gold is an essential component to a strong portfolio and an excellent store of value.

As always, we recommend a 10-percent weighting in gold: 5 percent in bullion, 5 percent in gold stocks, then rebalancing every year.

I’ll have more to share with you when I return next week from Zurich, where I’ll be presenting at its International Business School.

Please consider carefully a fund’s investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses. For this and other important information, obtain a fund prospectus by visiting www.usfunds.com or by calling 1-800-US-FUNDS (1-800-873-8637). Read it carefully before investing. Distributed by U.S. Global Brokerage, Inc.

Total Annualized Returns as of 12/31/2014
  One-Year Five-Year Ten-Year Gross Expense Ratio Expense Cap
Gold and Precious Metals Fund (USERX) -14.00% -15.67% 0.38% 2.15% 1.90%
World precious Minerals Fund (UNWPX) -16.52% -18.79% -2.57% 1.86% N/A

Expense ratios as stated in the most recent prospectus. The expense ratio after waivers is a voluntary limit on total fund operating expenses (exclusive of any acquired fund fees and expenses, performance fees, taxes, brokerage commissions and interest) that U.S. Global Investors, Inc. can modify or terminate at any time, which may lower a fund’s yield or return. Performance data quoted above is historical. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Results reflect the reinvestment of dividends and other earnings. For a portion of periods, the fund had expense limitations, without which returns would have been lower. Current performance may be higher or lower than the performance data quoted. The principal value and investment return of an investment will fluctuate so that your shares, when redeemed, may be worth more or less than their original cost. Performance does not include the effect of any direct fees described in the fund’s prospectus (e.g., short-term trading fees of 0.05%) which, if applicable, would lower your total returns. Performance quoted for periods of one year or less is cumulative and not annualized. Obtain performance data current to the most recent month-end at www.usfunds.com or 1-800-US-FUNDS.

Gold, precious metals, and precious minerals funds may be susceptible to adverse economic, political or regulatory developments due to concentrating in a single theme. The prices of gold, precious metals, and precious minerals are subject to substantial price fluctuations over short periods of time and may be affected by unpredicted international monetary and political policies. We suggest investing no more than 5% to 10% of your portfolio in these sectors.

Standard deviation is a measure of the dispersion of a set of data from its mean. The more spread apart the data, the higher the deviation. Standard deviation is also known as historical volatility.

Fund portfolios are actively managed, and holdings may change daily. Holdings are reported as of the most recent quarter-end. Holdings in the Gold and Precious Metals Fund and World Precious Minerals Fund as a percentage of net assets as of 12/31/2014: Barrick Gold 0.00%; Gold Fields Ltd. 1.51% in Gold and Precious Metals Fund, 0.36% in World and Precious Minerals Fund; Goldcorp, Inc. 1.03% in Gold and Precious Metals Fund; Harmony Gold Mining Co. Ltd. 0.90% in Gold and Precious Metals Fund, 0.82% in World Precious Minerals Fund; Osisko Mining 0.00%; Probe Mines Ltd. 0.00%; Virginia Mines, Inc. 1.14% in Gold and Precious Metals Fund, 10.35% in World Precious Minerals Fund.

All opinions expressed and data provided are subject to change without notice. Some of these opinions may not be appropriate to every investor. By clicking the link(s) above, you will be directed to a third-party website(s). U.S. Global Investors does not endorse all information supplied by this/these website(s) and is not responsible for its/their content.

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15 Charts to Keep Your Eyes on for ‘15
January 8, 2015

In anticipation of the new year ahead, I’ve pulled together 15 charts that we’ll be watching and might help guide our expectations for what 2015 has in store for us. After looking them over, be sure to share some of your own via Facebook, Twitter or Instagram.

A Not-So-Crude Trend

Crude oil has recently dipped below $50 per barrel for the first time since 2009, one of the reasons for which is the rise of oil production in the United States. The glut has already prompted many U.S. companies to halt or limit projects, especially those that make use of hydraulic fracturing, or fracking. With oil prices as low as they are, it’s possible even more companies will join them.

1.

The Rise of Oil Production in the United States
click to enlarge

The bright side, however, is that a bottom and subsequent rally might emerge as early as next month, if the 5-, 15- and 30-year trend stays in place.

2.

West Texas Crude Oil Historical Pattern
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Airline Stocks Taking Off

Low oil prices have certainly hurt companies involved in the exploration and production of oil, but cheap fuel has benefited many companies that consume barrelsful of the stuff, airlines included. Despite some turbulence, such as the October pullback and pre-election Ebola scares, airline stocks have continued to ascend.

3.

Airline Stocks at a 12 Year High
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PMI: The Economic Soothsayer

Gross domestic product (GDP) tells you where you’ve been. Only the global manufacturing purchasing manager’s index (PMI) can tell you where you’re headed. Our research shows that when the one-month PMI reading crosses above the three-month moving average, gains have been made in select areas six months afterward:

4.

Commodities and Commodity Stocks Historically Rose Six Months After PMI "Cross-Over"
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Since September of last year, the global one-month reading has remained below the three-month moving average.

5.

Global Manufacturing PMI's One-Month Moving Avergae Remains Below the Three-Month Moving Average
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We’ll be eyeing the global PMI closely this year because when the “cross-above” occurs, it’ll be time to act!

End of One Secular Cycle, Start of Another?

We might be nearing the end of another 30-year-or-so secular market cycle, which is both exciting and a signal for caution. Adjusted for inflation, each of the three cycles—1921-1949, 1949-1982 and 1982-2015—have risen successively in performance.

6.

Three S&P 500 Secular Market Cycles from the Last 100 Years
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This raises more than a few questions, two of which immediately spring to mind: When will this current cycle end? And will the next one follow the trend of even better inflation-adjusted returns?

Ruble Rubble

We all know Russia’s going through tough times. International sanctions, sliding oil prices and a collapsing currency have all contributed to dire economic straits.

7.

Russian Ruble Volatility Looks SImilar to Moves During 2008 Financial Crisis
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The Federation’s economy is expected to contract by almost 5 percent, and Standard & Poor’s recently announced that it could very well downgrade Russian debt to junk status within the next three months.

Whatever your opinion on Russia is, it’s important to acknowledge that ours is a global economy. It would be in our country and company’s best interest for Russia to transform itself into a more attractive place to conduct business.

BRICS of Gold

Many investors are aware that gold is often used as a safe-haven currency. We’re witnessing this fear trade unfold right now in most of the BRICS countries—Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa.

By year’s end, Russia had snapped up 130 tons of the precious metal, a 73-percent increase from 2013. Since India eliminated its 80:20 rule in November, which mandated that 20 percent of all imported gold must be exported before any new shipments could be brought in, gold demand has exploded. In South Africa, gold producers are currently leading a stock market rally.

And in China, wholesale gold demand has remained steady as its economy has slowed. Total withdrawals from the Shanghai Gold Exchange came in just shy of the record set in 2013.

8.

China's Wholesale Gold Demand in 2014 Was Just Shy of 2013 Record
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We’ll see if China can sustain its robust demand throughout the next 12 months.

Year of the Bull Market

Speaking of China, its A-Shares have rallied strongly since the summer despite the country’s slowdown. They continue to be undervalued and offer a favorable risk-reward profile.

9.

Undervaluation of Chinese Stocks Indicates Favorable Risk-Reward
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The rally in Chinese equities cannot be overstated. Over the past six months, China’s market capitalization has surpassed that of other BRIC countries combined.

10.

China's Market Value vs. Other BRIC Countries
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Brightest of the Bunch

Although gold had another down year in 2014, losing 1.7 percent, it still smoked all other major world currencies except for the U.S. dollar, whose mounting strength has put pressure on the yellow metal.

11.

Gold is Second Best PErforming Currency of 2014
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With the global downturn in effect, gold appears likely to remain an attractive investment.

Borrowing for Free

Bad news is often good news for gold: For the first time ever, the German 5-year and 10-year bond yields have fallen below zero, indicating unambiguous deflation in the eurozone.

12.

German Five-Year Breakeven Rate Gauges Inflation Outlook
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This means that German bondholders are effectively paying the government to hold on to its debt. As a result, international investors might look elsewhere for better performance—gold, for instance, or the U.S. municipal bond market, which was valued at $3.6 trillion by year’s end.

The S&P 500 Index Paying Dividends

Nearly 85 percent of companies in the S&P 500 currently pay a dividend, with dividends per share (DPS) having grown 11.3 percent in the past 12 months.

13.

More BLue Stocks Paying Dividends
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What’s more, FactSet analysts expect DPS to increase over 8 percent in the next 12 months, with the financial and consumer discretionary sectors to report double-digit growth.

Watch the Big Apple

As the U.S.’s largest company by net capitalization, Apple has had mixed results after launching its flagship devices. When it released the first iPhone back in June 2007, its stock surged 16 percent within the next month. More recently, however, Apple stock tumbled following reports that the iPhone 6 was prone to bending.

Will the Apple Watch, to be released sometime early this year, lead company stock higher? Or will it take a bite out of gains? We’ll have to wait and see, but for now, analysts are already making their product shipment forecasts for 2015.

14.

Estimated 2015 Apple Watch Shipments
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Don’t Fear Rising Rates

15.

Historically, Rising Interest Rates Have Helped Boost Stocks on Average

This one remains filed under “considerable time,” as we have no idea when or to what extent the Federal Reserve will decide to raise rates this year. I’ve previously written about how rate increases might affect Treasuries. But what about stocks? Historical precedent, going back to 1971, shows that stocks have on average increased by nearly 4 percent six months following a rate hike.

What other charts do you think are important to keep in mind as we embark on a new year? Again, you’re invited to share them via Facebook, Twitter or Instagram.

Past performance does not guarantee future results.

The J.P. Morgan Global Purchasing Manager’s Index is an indicator of the economic health of the global manufacturing sector. The PMI index is based on five major indicators: new orders, inventory levels, production, supplier deliveries and the employment environment.

The S&P 500 Stock Index is a widely recognized capitalization-weighted index of 500 common stock prices in U.S. companies.

The S&P 500 Materials Index is a capitalization-weighted index that tracks the companies in the material sector as a subset of the S&P 500. The S&P 500 Energy Index is a capitalization-weighted index that tracks the companies in the energy sector as a subset of the S&P 500.

The NYSE Arca Airline Index is an equal dollar weighted index designed to measure the performance of highly capitalized companies in the airline industry. The XAL Index tracks the price performance of major U.S. and overseas airlines.

Shanghai Gold Exchange is a non-profit self-regulatory organization, approved by the State Council, organized by the People's Bank of China, and registered with the State Administration for Industry & Commerce, for the purpose of trading gold, silver, platinum and other precious metals.

BRIC refers to the emerging market countries Brazil, Russia, India and China.

Standard deviation is a measure of the dispersion of a set of data from its mean. The more spread apart the data, the higher the deviation. Standard deviation is also known as historical volatility.

Fund portfolios are actively managed, and holdings may change daily. Holdings are reported as of the most recent quarter-end. The following securities mentioned in the article were held by one or more of U.S. Global Investors Funds as of 9/30/2014: Apple, Facebook.

All opinions expressed and data provided are subject to change without notice. Some of these opinions may not be appropriate to every investor.

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The $330 Billion Global Tax Break
December 22, 2014

Warren Buffett: The ultimate contrarian investor.In an October 2008 op-ed in the New York Times, Warren Buffett famously advised: “Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful.”

Whereas most investors during that time of financial panic were dumping their freefalling U.S. equities, Buffett was snatching them up at such great volume that he imagined his personal, non-Berkshire Hathaway portfolio would soon be composed only of domestic stocks.

“I haven’t the faintest idea as to whether stocks will be higher or lower a month—or a year—from now,” he continued. “What is likely, however, is that the market will move higher, perhaps substantially so, well before either sentiment or the economy turns up.”

The same is true for oil prices. I can’t say when oil will begin to recover or by how much. What I can say is this: For far too many investors, by the time they gain back the confidence to put money into oil stocks again, the rally might have already taken off, making it challenging to capture the full benefit of the upswing.

In the 1860s Central Pacific Railroad Employed Over 12000 Chinese LaborersThink of it this way. Every Black Friday, merchandise is discounted to such an extent that thousands of bargain shoppers are willing to camp overnight in parking lots to be the first inside. When the doors open, people literally get pushed, shoved, elbowed and trampled on.

But too often, the stock market works in a curiously opposite way. When certain stocks drop in price, investors scramble for the exit instead of picking up the bargains.

Oil Extremely Oversold

Oil tycoon T. Boone Pickens recently told Mad Money’s Jim Cramer that oil would return to $100 within 12 to 18 months. Again, there’s no guarantee that this will happen—and keep in mind that it’s in Pickens’ self-interest that oil reach these figures again—but if it does, the most opportune time to participate in the oil trade could be now when stocks are at a discount.

Pickens’ prediction aside, there are sound reasons to believe that oil prices will be normalizing sooner rather than later.

For one, oil prices are currently below many countries’ breakeven prices. This could finally encourage the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to cut production, so long as Saudi Arabia got assurances from fellow members that they would comply with the cuts. Where they are right now, prices simply aren’t sustainable. According to Business Insider, oil rigs in the Permian Basin have fallen by nine; those in Williston by seven; and those in Marcellus by one.

Brian Hicks, portfolio manager of our Global Resources Fund (PSPFX), believes that the bottom for oil prices might have already been reached.

“Aggressive capex cuts in the oil industry right now will lead to lower supply in 2015 and 2016, increasing demand and pushing up prices,” Brian says. “Plus, there might be a positive seasonal trading session over the next few weeks, with a possible laggard rebound in January.”

Although past performance is no guarantee of future results, the chart below, which takes into account 30, 15 and five years’ worth of seasonal data for oil prices, illustrates Brian’s point. In the 30-year range, a steady decline in prices began in October and bottomed in February. This was followed by a substantial rally that carried us through the first and second quarters of the year. It’s possible the same will happen again early next year.

West Texas Crude Oil Historical Pattern
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“The theme going into 2015 is mean reversion,” Brian said in a Frank Talk a couple of weeks ago. “Oil prices are below where they should be, and hopefully they’ll start gravitating back to the equilibrium price of between $80 and $85 a barrel.”

Bad News Is Good News

While we wait for oil to revert back to its mean, however, the world can enjoy and benefit from inexpensive gas. Call it the “oil peace dividend.” Here in the U.S., the current average for a gallon of gas is $2.45. Just one year ago, it was $3.21 per gallon, $0.76 higher. Over the course of a year, those extra cents add up.

But the U.S. isn’t the only country that benefits from affordable fuel.

In an article titled “The Saudi Stimulus,” Jon Markman writes that the global economy is looking to save hundreds of billions of dollars on an annual basis:

According to EIA [U.S. Energy Information Administration] data, consumption of crude oil during the latest 12 months was 6.9 billion barrels. So the price drop from $107/barrel at the June 2014 high to $59 today represents a total presumptive savings of $332 billion per year.

In a time when China, the European Union and other major markets are trying to jumpstart their economies, a $330 billion tax break can only come as good news. It should help in stimulating spending and driving global economic growth.

The Weakening Russian Bear

It’s impossible not to discuss falling oil prices without also touching on Russia, half of whose budget depends on $100-per-barrel oil exports. In the past month alone, the federation’s currency has plunged more than 30 percent to 60 rubles to the dollar as Brent oil has slipped nearly 25 percent.

Russian Currency's Tumble Tied to Falling Brent Oil Prices
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President Vladimir Putin couldn’t have chosen a worse time to annex the Crimean peninsula because now the region must be subsidized with money Russia doesn’t really have at the moment. (That’s not to say, of course, that there was ever a good time to invade Ukraine, or that Putin could have predicted the dramatic decline in Brent oil prices.) But even before the ruble began to unravel, stocks in Russia’s MICEX Index had already taken a hit in July and fallen out of lockstep with other emerging markets.

Russian Stocks Decoupling from Emerging Markets
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There’s no lack of commentators making comparisons between the Russian Federation’s current tailspin and the country’s 1998 debt crisis. But a more apt comparison might be the lead-up to the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, given the many uncanny parallels between then and now involving oil.

Yegor Gaidar, acting prime minister of Russia between 1991 and 1994, wrote in 2007:

The timeline of the collapse of the Soviet Union can be traced to September 13, 1985… The Saudis stopped protecting oil prices, and Saudi Arabia quickly regained its share in the world market. During the next six months, oil production in Saudi Arabia increased fourfold, while oil prices collapsed by approximately the same amount in real terms.

As a result, the Soviet Union lost approximately $20 billion per year, money without which the country simply could not survive.

Today, Russia is similarly hemorrhaging capital as a result of international sanctions and crashing oil prices, prompted by both the American shale oil boom and OPEC’s inaction in stabilizing the commodity at last month’s meeting.

It’s unclear for how long Russia’s government can support its oil-dependent budget. During his press conference last Thursday, President Putin conceded that spending cuts were unavoidable, but that “under the most unfavorable external economic scenario, this situation may go on for about two years.”

Some readers might find that prognosis a little too optimistic. It could be that Russia is in for a much lengthier period of damage control.

USGI’s Emerging Europe Fund Resilient to Russia’s Woes

It states in our prospectus that “government policy is a precursor to change.” As such, we believe Russia poses too great of a geopolitical risk for our investors. Because of nimble active management, our Emerging Europe Fund (EUROX) now has minimal exposure to Russia, thereby avoiding losses as significant as the Market Vectors Russia ETF (RSX).

Historic Cost Trends in Gold Production
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MSCI Emerging Markets Europe 10/40 Index Country WeightsThis decision has also enabled the fund to outperform its benchmark, the MSCI Emerging Markets Europe 10/40 Index, which still maintained a 46-percent weighting in Russia as of the end of November. The index has consequently fallen more than 30 percent year-to-date, compared to EUROX’s 22.5 percent.

Since trimming nearly all of our Russian holdings, Turkey has replaced the beleaguered federation as our largest weighting in EUROX. The Borsa Istanbul 100 Index is currently up 16 percent year-to-date.

As anyone who watches the news closely knows, the situation in Russia is evolving rapidly day-to-day. We will continue to monitor events that could trigger opportunities in the region. In the meantime, check out EUROX’s current regional breakdown.

I would like to conclude by wishing all of our loyal shareholders as well as Investor Alert and Frank Talk readers a Merry Christmas, Happy Hanukkah and Season’s Greetings!

Please consider carefully a fund’s investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses. For this and other important information, obtain a fund prospectus by visiting www.usfunds.com or by calling 1-800-US-FUNDS (1-800-873-8637). Read it carefully before investing. Distributed by U.S. Global Brokerage, Inc.

For information regarding the investment objectives, strategies, liquidity, risks, expenses and fees of the Market Vectors Russia ETF, please refer to that fund's prospectus.

 

Total Annualized Returns as of 09/30/2014
  One-Year Five-Year Ten-Year Gross Expense Ratio Expense Ratio After Waivers
Emerging Europe Fund -14.44% -1.61% 3.21% 2.13% n/a
Market Vectors Russia ETF (RSX) -18.53 -2.23 n/a 0.71% 0.63%
MSCI EM Europe 10/40 Index -13.19 1.04% 7.01% n/a n/a

Expense ratios as stated in the most recent prospectus. Performance data quoted above is historical. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Results reflect the reinvestment of dividends and other earnings. For a portion of periods, the fund had expense limitations, without which returns would have been lower. Current performance may be higher or lower than the performance data quoted. The principal value and investment return of an investment will fluctuate so that your shares, when redeemed, may be worth more or less than their original cost. Performance does not include the effect of any direct fees described in the fund’s prospectus (e.g., short-term trading fees of 0.05%) which, if applicable, would lower your total returns. Performance quoted for periods of one year or less is cumulative and not annualized. Obtain performance data current to the most recent month-end at www.usfunds.com or 1-800-US-FUNDS.

EUROX vs. Market Vectors Russia ETF (RSX)

Investment Objective: The Emerging Europe Fund is an actively managed fund that takes a non-diversified approach to the Eastern European market. The fund invests in companies located in the emerging markets of Eastern Europe.

The Market Vectors Russia ETF seeks to replicate as closely as possible, before fees and expenses, the price and yield performance of the Market Vectors Russia Index. The Index includes companies that are incorporated in Russia or that generate at least 50% of their revenues (or, where applicable, have at least 50% of their assets) in Russia.

Liquidity: The Emerging Europe Fund can be purchased or sold at a net asset value (NAV) determined at the end of each trading day.

RSX issues and redeems shares at NAV only in a large specified number of shares, each called a “Creation Unit,” or multiples thereof. A Creation Unit consists of 50,000 shares. Individual shares of RSX may only be purchased and sold in secondary market transactions through brokers. Shares of RSX are listed on NYSE Arca Inc. (“NYSE Arca”) and because shares trade at market prices rather than NAV, shares of RSX may trade at a price greater than or less than NAV.

Safety/Fluctuations of principal/return: Loss of money is a risk of investing in the Emerging Europe Fund, as well as the Market Vectors Russia ETF. Shares of both of these securities are subject to sudden fluctuations in value, and when sold, may be worth more or less than their original cost.

Tax features: The Emerging Europe Fund may make distributions that may be taxed as ordinary income or capital gains. Under current federal law, long-term capital gains for individual investors in the fund are taxed at a maximum rate of 15%.

RSX’s distributions are taxable and will generally be taxed as ordinary income or capital gains.

Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Foreign and emerging market investing involves special risks such as currency fluctuation and less public disclosure, as well as economic and political risk. Because the Global Resources Fund concentrates its investments in specific industries, the fund may be subject to greater risks and fluctuations than a portfolio representing a broader range of industries.

By investing in a specific geographic region, a regional fund’s returns and share price may be more volatile than those of a less concentrated portfolio. The Emerging Europe Fund invests more than 25% of its investments in companies principally engaged in the oil & gas or banking industries.  The risk of concentrating investments in this group of industries will make the fund more susceptible to risk in these industries than funds which do not concentrate their investments in an industry and may make the fund’s performance more volatile.

The MICEX Index is the real-time cap-weighted Russian composite index.  It comprises 30 most liquid stocks of Russian largest and most developed companies from 10 main economy sectors.  The MICEX Index was launched on September 22, 1997, base value 100.  The MICEX Index is calculated and disseminated by the MICEX Stock Exchange, the main Russian stock exchange.

The MSCI Emerging Markets Europe 10/40 Index (Net Total Return) is a free float-adjusted market capitalization index that is designed to measure equity performance in the emerging market countries of Europe (Czech Republic, Greece, Hungary, Poland, Russia, and Turkey).  The index is calculated on a net return basis (i.e., reflects the minimum possible dividend reinvestment after deduction of the maximum rate withholding tax). The index is periodically rebalanced relative to the constituents' weights in the parent index.

The MSCI Emerging Markets Index is a free float-adjusted market capitalization index that is designed to measure equity market performance in the global emerging markets.

The Borsa Istanbul Banks Index (XBANK) is a capitalization-weighted free float adjusted Industry Group Index composed of National Market listed companies in the banking industry. All members of the index are also constituents of the XUMAL Sector Index.

The Market Vectors Russia Index is a modified market cap weighted index that tracks the performance of the largest and most liquid companies in Russia. Its unique pure-play approach expands local exposure to include offshore companies that generate at least 50% of their revenues in Russia.

The S&P 500 Stock Index is a widely recognized capitalization-weighted index of 500 common stock prices in U.S. companies.

Fund portfolios are actively managed, and holdings may change daily. Holdings are reported as of the most recent quarter-end. Holdings in the Global Resources Fund and Emerging Europe Fund as a percentage of net assets as of 9/30/2014: Berkshire Hathaway 0.00%, Cubist Pharma 0.00%, Market Vectors Russia ETF 0.00%, Merck & Co., Inc. 0.00%. 

By clicking the link(s) above, you will be directed to a third-party website(s). U.S. Global Investors does not endorse all information supplied by this/these website(s) and is not responsible for its/their content. All opinions expressed and data provided are subject to change without notice. Some of these opinions may not be appropriate to every investor.

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Net Asset Value
as of 09/25/2017

Global Resources Fund PSPFX $5.78 -0.04 Gold and Precious Metals Fund USERX $8.02 0.06 World Precious Minerals Fund UNWPX $6.69 0.06 China Region Fund USCOX $10.96 -0.46 Emerging Europe Fund EUROX $6.94 -0.06 All American Equity Fund GBTFX $24.34 0.10 Holmes Macro Trends Fund MEGAX $19.99 0.03 Near-Term Tax Free Fund NEARX $2.23 No Change U.S. Government Securities Ultra-Short Bond Fund UGSDX $2.00 No Change