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Please note: The Frank Talk articles listed below contain historical material. The data provided was current at the time of publication. For current information regarding any of the funds mentioned in these presentations, please visit the appropriate fund performance page.

What Are the Risks of a U.S.-China Trade War?
December 19, 2016

What Are the Risks of a U.S.-China Trade War?

Risk is one of my all-time favorite board games. It’s among the very few that’s equal parts strategy and luck, and the stakes can’t get much higher than total world domination. It wasn’t uncommon for games between my friends and me to last for hours, sometimes deep into the night.

Today a real-life game of Risk is unfolding on the world stage, with major players moving their pieces into place.

As you probably recall, President-elect Donald Trump recently took a call from Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen, a decision that flies in the face of 40 years’ worth of U.S.-China diplomacy. Since 1978, the U.S. has had no diplomatic relations with Taiwan after acknowledging the “One China” policy—a policy Trump says the U.S. is not necessarily bound to.

His phone call and comment follow tough talk on the campaign trail about China manipulating its currency and stealing American manufacturing jobs—though bringing them back might be hard, as we’ve steadily been losing such jobs since the Second World War.

Manufacturing Jobs as a Percentage of Total U.S. Workforce
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Trump has also threatened to impose an unrealistically high 45 percent tariff on Chinese imports, prompting U.S. companies operating in the Asian country to fear “retribution.”

For their part, the Chinese say they have “serious concerns” about Trump’s position on Taiwan and international trade, with one state-run newspaper describing the president-elect as “ignorant as a child” in the field of diplomacy.

China’s “retribution” could be coming sooner than we expect. Last week, a top Chinese official visited Mexico to strengthen ties with the Latin American country, which has also frequently found itself caught in Trump’s crosshairs. Both countries—our number two and number three trading partners, after Canada—have expressed interest in lessening their dependency on the U.S., especially given the strong possibility that Trump could raise certain trade restrictions.

In the fight for American jobs, we could be “risking” a trade war with China right on our southern doorstep. Though the stakes might not be as high as total global domination, they come pretty close. With rates moving up and the world resetting to less quantitative easing, inflation might accelerate. To avoid a global recession, Trump will need to make streamlining regulations a top priority.

Gold Sidelined as Trump Rally Continues and Yields Surge

For only the second time since 2008, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates last week, surprising no one. Although the 25 basis point lift was in line with expectations, markets took some time to digest the news that three rate hikes—not two, as was earlier expected—were likely to happen in 2017. Major averages hit the pause button for the first time since last month’s presidential  election, but the Trump rally quickly resumed Thursday morning.

The two-year Treasury yield immediately jumped to a nominal 1.27 percent after averaging 0.80 percent for most of 2016, an increase of 58 percent. In real, or inflation-adjusted, terms, the yield is still in negative territory, but it’s clearly heading up following the U.S. election and rate hike. Thirty-year mortgage rates, meanwhile, hit a two-year high.

Real 2-Year Treasury Yield Heading Up Following Election and Rate Hike
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Gold retreated to a 10-month low. As I’ve explained many times before, gold has historically had an inverse relationship with bond yields, performing best when they’re moving south.

It’s worth pointing out that the most recent gold bull market, which carried the yellow metal up 28 percent in the first six months of 2016, was triggered last December when the Fed hiked rates.  

Will Gold Respond Similarly to Fed Policy?
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Again, as many as three rate hikes are expected in 2017—unlike the one this year—with Fed Chair Janet Yellen commenting that economic conditions have improved well enough to warrant a more aggressive policy. If true, this should accelerate upward momentum of Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar—currently at a 14-year high—which could dampen gold’s chances of repeating the rally we saw in the first half of this year.

More Than $10 Trillion in Negative-Yielding Bonds

Other gold drivers still remain in place, though, including negative-yielding government bonds elsewhere around the world. The value of such debt has dropped considerably since the election of Donald Trump, but it still stands at more than $10 trillion, supporting the investment case for the yellow metal. And as I mentioned previously, many of Trump’s protectionist policies—opposition to free trade agreements, imposition of tariffs on Chinese-made goods—are expected to heat up inflationary pressures in the U.S., which could serve as a gold catalyst.

What’s more, gold is looking oversold, down two standard deviations for the 60-day period, which has historically signaled a good buying opportunity. With prices off close to 12 percent since Election Day, I believe this is an attractive time to rebalance your gold position. I’ve always recommended a 10 percent weighting, with 5 percent in gold stocks and the other 5 percent in bullion, coins and jewelry.

 

Will Trump Tear Up Dodd-Frank? The Market Is Betting on It

The top beneficiary of the Trump rally so far has been the banking industry, with bets driven by the potential for higher lending rates and stronger economic growth in the coming months, not to mention the president-elect’s pledge to reject any new financial regulations.  

Betting Big on Banks
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I wouldn’t call this rally “irrational exuberance” just yet, but according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch’s monthly survey, fund managers have built up the largest overweight position ever in bank stocks—31 percent above their benchmarks on average.

This phenomenal run-up implies investors have confidence Trump can make good on his promise to unleash the U.S. economy and dismantle Wall Street regulations.

As I’ve made clear in previous commentaries, regulations are usually created with the best of intentions, and they’re sometimes necessary to establish a level playing field. But all too often, they end up impeding financial growth, hurting not just businesses but also consumers.

Take Dodd-Frank. What was intended as a set of policies to prevent another financial meltdown has dramatically limited consumer choice, shrunk the number of retirement options and squeezed out smaller banks and credit unions. The 2,300-page act, signed in 2010, places a monumental burden on financial institutions, from banks to brokers to investment firms, which we have felt indirectly. Even former Fed Chair Ben Bernanke had a hard time refinancing his house in 2014, one of Dodd-Frank’s unintended consequences.

Before 2010, about 75 percent of banks offered free checking accounts. Only two years later, that figure had fallen to less than 40 percent. Since the law went into effect, the U.S. has lost one community financial institution a day on average. This hurts credit-seeking small businesses and startups, not to mention consumers in the market to buy a new home or vehicle.

Changes in Number of U.S. Banks Since Passage of Dodd-Frank
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In House Speaker Paul Ryan’s “A Better Way” initiative, several solutions to runaway regulations are proposed. One that stands out is a “regulatory budget,” which would limit the number and dollar amount of rules federal agencies can impose every year. My hope is that Ryan and Trump can set aside their differences to streamline the ever-growing mountain of rules that weighs on American businesses and restricts the flow of capital.

 

All opinions expressed and data provided are subject to change without notice. Some of these opinions may not be appropriate to every investor. By clicking the link(s) above, you will be directed to a third-party website(s). U.S. Global Investors does not endorse all information supplied by this/these website(s) and is not responsible for its/their content.

Standard deviation is a measure of the dispersion of a set of data from its mean. The more spread apart the data, the higher the deviation. Standard deviation is also known as historical volatility.

The MSCI World Financials Index captures large and mid-cap representation across 23 Developed Markets countries. All securities in the index are classified in the financials sector as per the Global Industry Classification Standard (GICS). The Dow Jones U.S. Financials Index, a member of the Dow Jones Global Indices family, is designed to measure the stock performance of U.S. companies in the financials industry. The S&P 500 Stock Index is a widely recognized capitalization-weighted index of 500 common stock prices in U.S. companies.

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These Factors Show Why Buffett Likes Airlines Again
December 14, 2016

Last month we learned that Warren Buffett bought shares of American Airlines, Delta Air Lines and United Airlines, according to Berkshire Hathaway’s third-quarter regulatory filings. He also confirmed that he purchased Southwest Airlines stock as well. If we look at the Dow Jones U.S. Airlines Index year-to-date, these allocations appear to have been well-timed.

Buffett Bought at Airline Bottom
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Buffett is universally recognized as one of the most influential investors of all time, so his decision to book a flight on airlines, after blasting the industry for years, is worth examining more closely.

Protected by an Economic Moat

We can mention a couple of things upfront. Most everyone knows Buffett is a value investor. He seeks equity in companies that the market has undervalued—including airlines. As I’ve pointed out before, if we use price-to-earnings as our valuation metric, airlines are among the least expensive in the industrials sector.

He also likes companies that are protected by what he calls a “moat,” the “something” that prevents new competitors from disrupting the industry, giving the veteran players a clear advantage in the marketplace. This is why Buffett has always been attracted to railroads. Because rail is prohibitively capital-intensive, the barriers to entry are high and competition is limited, giving companies greater market power.

Why Buffett Likes Airlines: Protected by a Moat

We see a similar moat protecting U.S. airlines. Since the industry consolidated a decade ago after a wave of bankruptcies, a vast majority of the market share is now concentrated in the big four carriers. In 2015, American, Delta, United and Southwest controlled about 77 percent of U.S. airline revenue.

These are pretty high-level factors to consider. When we delve deeper into the factors Buffett uses to assess equities, the airlines group becomes even more attractive.

Airlines Crushed the Broader Market

What you see below are the top 10 U.S. airlines compared to the S&P 500 Index, using four of Buffett’s favorite financial metrics:  return on equity, cash flow return on invested capital, net income margin and free cash flow per share. As of the third quarter, the airlines group trounced the broader market in all four areas for the 12-month period. This might have contributed to Buffett’s decision to rotate back into a space he spent a couple of decades deriding.

Buffett's Favorite Factors Applied to Airlines and S&P 500
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You can find the definitions of these factors on Investopedia, but they’re pretty self-explanatory.

Return on equity (ROE) measures how much profit a company generates with shareholders’ money. Whereas the S&P 500 returned about 14 percent during the 12-month period, airlines returned 36 percent of equity.

Cash flow return on invested capital (CFROIC) tells investors how much cash flow a company produces as a percentage of its total capital. CFROIC was 35.60 percent for carriers, 14.90 percent for blue-chip stocks.

Net income margin, simply put, is the percent difference between a company’s sales and its net profits. In the past, airlines were notorious for having razor-thin margins. That’s all changed thanks to industry consolidation, restructuring of businesses and the addition of new revenue streams. The top 10 airlines saw margins of more than 12 percent, while S&P 500 margins were 9.8 percent.    
Finally, free cash flow per share is exactly what it sounds like. It’s sometimes used as a proxy for earnings per share, but it specifically measures a company’s ability to pay back loans, taxes and other expenses on a per-share basis. Airlines beat the S&P 500, $4.1 per share to $3.3 per share.

Airlines have definitely come a long way since Buffett invested in—and lost money on—US Airways back in 1989. If you’re interested in learning more, I invite you to join me during my next webcast. I’ll be discussing how airlines reversed their fortunes from near-bankruptcy to record profitability, and where they might go from here.

I hope you’ll join us!

 

All opinions expressed and data provided are subject to change without notice. Some of these opinions may not be appropriate to every investor.

Dow Jones U.S. Total Market Airlines Index is constructed and weighted using free-float market capitalization and the index is quotes in USD.

The S&P 500 Stock Index is a widely recognized capitalization-weighted index of 500 common stock prices in U.S. companies.

The price-earnings ratio (P/E ratio) is the ratio for valuing a company that measures its current share price relative to its per-share earnings. The price-earnings ratio can be calculated as: market value per share / earnings per share.

Holdings may change daily. Holdings are reported as of the most recent quarter-end. The following securities mentioned in the article were held by one or more accounts managed by U.S. Global Investors as of 9/30/2016: Alaska Air Group Inc., Allegiant Travel Co., American Airlines Group Inc., Delta Air Lines Inc., Hawaiian Holdings Inc., JetBlue Airways Corp., Southwest Airlines Co., Spirit Airlines Inc., United Continental Holdings Inc., Virgin America Inc.

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Inflationary Expectations in 2017 Keep the Polish on Gold
December 12, 2016

Inflationary Expectations 2017 Keep Polish Gold

Inflation can be understood as the destruction of a currency’s purchasing power. To combat this, investors, central banks and families have historically stored a portion of their wealth in gold. I call this the Fear Trade.

The Fear Trade continues to be a rational strategy. Since President-elect Donald Trump’s surprise win a month ago, the Turkish lira has plunged against the strengthening U.S. dollar, prompting President Recep Erdogan to urge businesses, citizens and institutions to convert all foreign exchange into either the lira or gold. Most obliged out of patriotism, including the Borsa Istanbul, Turkey’s stock exchange, and the move has helped support the currency from falling further.

Gold Save Turkish Lira
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Venezuela, meanwhile, has dire inflationary problems of its own. Out-of-control socialism has led to an extreme case of “demand-pull inflation,” economists’ term for when demand far outpaces supply. Indeed, the South American country’s food and medicine crisis has only worsened since Hugo Chavez’s autocratic regime and the collapse in oil prices. The bolivar is now so worthless; many shopkeepers don’t even bother counting it, as Bloomberg reports. Instead, they literally weigh bricks of bolivar notes on scales.

“I feel like Pablo Escobar,” one Venezuelan bakery owner joked, referring to the notorious Colombian drug lord, as he surveyed his trash bags brimming with worthless paper money.

Because hyperinflation has destroyed the bolivar, the ailing South American country sold as much as 25 percent of its gold reserves in the first half of 2016 just to make its debt payments. Venezuela’s official holdings now stand at a record low of $7.5 billion.

Trump-Carrier Deal a Case Study in U.S. Inflation

visited Bloomberg TV studio today rates gold

The U.S. is not likely to experience out-of-control hyperinflation anytime soon, as the dollar continues to surge on bets that Trump’s proposals of lower taxes, streamlined regulations and infrastructure spending will boost economic growth. But I do believe the market is underestimating inflationary pressures here in the U.S. starting next year.

As I explained to Scarlet Fu and Julie Hyman on Bloomberg TV last week, inflation we might soon see is largely caused by rising production costs, which is different from the situation in Turkey and Venezuela.

Nevertheless, it still serves as a positive gold catalyst for 2017.

Consider Trump’s recent Carrier deal—the one that saved, by his own estimate, 1,100 jobs from being shipped to Mexico. We should applaud Trump and Vice President-elect Mike Pence for looking out for American workers, but it’s important to acknowledge the effect such interventionist efforts will have on consumer prices.

Trumps jobs Carrier indicative protectionist policies

As I see it, the Carrier deal is indicative of the sort of trade protectionism that could spur inflation to levels unseen in more than 30 years. The Indiana-based air conditioner manufacturer has already announced it will likely need to raise prices as much as 5 percent to offset what it would have saved by moving south of the border.

We can expect the same price inflation for all consumer goods, from iPhones to Nikes, if production is brought back home. That’s just the reality of it. Prices will go up, especially if Trump succeeds at levying a 35 percent tariff on American goods that are built overseas but imported back into the U.S. The extra cost will simply be passed on to consumers.

What’s more, Trump has been very critical of free trade agreements, threatening to tear them up after blaming them—NAFTA, specifically—for the loss of American jobs and stagnant wage growth. There’s some truth to this. But trade agreements have also helped restrain inflation over the past three decades. This is what has allowed prices for flat-screen, plasma TVs to come down so dramatically and become affordable for most Americans.

International Trade Deals Slowed Inflation
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In its 2014 assessment of NAFTA, the Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE) calculated that for every job that could be linked to free trade, “the gains to the U.S. economy were about $450,000, owing to enhanced productivity of the workforce, a broader range of goods and services, and lower prices at the checkout counter for households.”

Additional tariffs and the inability to import cheaper goods are inflationary pressures that could result in a deeper negative real rate environment. And as I’ve pointed out many times before, negative real rates have a real positive effect on gold, as the two are inversely correlated.

Inverse Correlation Between Gold Real Fed Funds Rate
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Macquarie research shows that last year, ahead of the December rate hike, gold retreated about 18 percent from its year-to-date high. Afterward, it gained 26 percent in the first half of 2016. The decline so far this year has been about 15 percent from its year-to-date high. Gold, according to Macquarie, is setting up for another rally in a fashion similar to last year.

Central Bank Demand Could Accelerate on Growing Federal Debt

The U.S. government is currently saddled with $19.9 trillion in public debt. Since 2008, federal debt growth has exceeded gross domestic product (GDP) growth. And according to a Credit Suisse report last week, Trump’s tax proposal, coupled with deficit spending, could cause federal debt to grow even faster than under current policy.

After analyzing projections from a number of agencies and think tanks, Credit Suisse “estimates a federal debt-to-GDP of 92 percent by 2026, including a GDP growth offset from the lower tax tailwind, and 107 percent excluding the GDP growth offset.”  

Higher US Budget Deficits Debt Spur Banks Increase Gold Buying
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The U.S. dollar accounts for about 64 percent of central banks’ foreign exchange reserves. With the potential for higher U.S. budget deficits and debt risking dollar strength, central banks around the globe could be motivated to increase their gold holdings, says Credit Suisse.

Waiting for Mean Reversion

As I mentioned last week, gold is looking oversold in the short term and long term, down more than two standard deviations over the last 20 trading days. Statistically, when gold has done this, a return to the mean has often followed. This has been an attractive entry point for investors seeking the sort of diversification benefits gold and gold stocks have offered.

In a note to investors last week, ETF Securities highlighted these diversification benefits, writing that a gold allocation has “historically increased portfolio efficiency—lowering risk while increasing return—compared to a diversified portfolio without an allocation to precious metals.”

As always, I recommend a 10 percent weighting: 5 percent in gold bullion, 5 percent in gold stocks, then rebalance every year.

Learn Why Warren Buffett Changed His Mind

When I visited New York in the spring, the media was negative on airlines because Warren Buffett didn’t like the industry. Now, the Oracle of Omaha has changed his mind about airlines, having invested $1.3 billion in the big four American carriers—but the media’s still down on the group.  I was in New York all week, and they were saying airlines have gone up too much.

I’m afraid they’re missing a great opportunity here. Today, the industry is surrounded by what Buffett calls a “moat,” meaning the barrier to entry is too high and restrictive for new competitors. President-elect Trump’s victory means that industry regulations could be streamlined and the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) brought into the 21st century. Since the group bottomed in late June, it’s rallied a phenomenal 46 percent.

If you’re getting your market news from the mainstream media, you could be at risk of missing out on this opportunity as well. I urge you to learn the real story about the airline industry by registering today for our webcast event, to take place this Thursday, December 15. I’ll be discussing how airlines have reversed their fortunes from near-bankruptcy to record profitability, and where they might go from here.

I hope you’ll join us!

Higher US Budget Deficits Debt Spur Banks Increase Gold Buying

All opinions expressed and data provided are subject to change without notice. Some of these opinions may not be appropriate to every investor. By clicking the link(s) above, you will be directed to a third-party website(s). U.S. Global Investors does not endorse all information supplied by this/these website(s) and is not responsible for its/their content.

Standard deviation is a measure of the dispersion of a set of data from its mean. The more spread apart the data, the higher the deviation. Standard deviation is also known as historical volatility.

Holdings may change daily. Holdings are reported as of the most recent quarter-end. None of the securities mentioned in the article were held by any accounts managed by U.S. Global Investors as of 9/30/2016.

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Fidel Castro’s Cuba vs Lee Kuan Yew’s Singapore: A Tale of Two Economies (UPDATE)
November 29, 2016

On Friday, November 25, Fidel Castro died at age 90. The former revolutionary and hardline dictator of Cuba was among the 20th century’s longest-serving leaders, third only to Elizabeth II and Bhumibol Adulyadej, the King of Thailand, who passed away in October.

Castro’s death comes at a pivotal moment in U.S.-Cuban relations. With trade between the two countries on the path to normalization, and with U.S. airlines making scheduled flights to Havana for the first time in more than 50 years, President-elect Donald J. Trump has pledged to reinstate many of the Cold War embargos that were lifted by President Barack Obama.

“If Cuba is unwilling to make a better deal for the Cuban people, the Cuban/American people and the U.S. as a whole, I will terminate deal,” Trump tweeted on November 28.

In light of Castro’s passing, we are rerunning this Frank Talk from March 2015, in which Frank compares and analyzes the widely divergent economies of Cuba and Singapore under their now-deceased leaders, Castro and Lee Kuan Yew. 

A Victoria's Secret in the Toronto Pearson International AirportIt would be nearly impossible to find two world leaders in living memory whose influence is more inextricably linked to the countries they presided over than Cuba’s Fidel Castro and Singapore’s Lee Kuan Yew, who passed away this Monday at the age of 91.

You might find this hard to believe now, but in 1959—the year both leaders assumed power—Cuba was a much wealthier nation than Singapore. Whereas Singapore was little more than a sleepy former colonial trading and naval outpost with very few natural resources, Cuba enjoyed a thriving tourism industry and was rich in tobacco, sugar and coffee.

Fast forward about 55 years, and things couldn’t have reversed more dramatically, as you can see in the images below.

Cube in 1950, Singapore in 1950, Cuba today, Singapore today

The ever-widening divergence between the two nations serves as a textbook case study of a) the economic atrophy that’s indicative of Soviet-style communism, and b) the sky-is-the-limit prosperity that comes with the sort of American-style free market capitalism Lee introduced to Singapore.

Sound fiscal policy, a strong emphasis on free trade and competitive tax rates have transformed the Southeast Asian city-state from an impoverished third world country into a bustling metropolis and global financial hub that today rivals New York City, London and Switzerland. Between 1965 and 1990—the year he stepped down as prime minister—Lee grew Singapore’s per capita GDP a massive 2,800 percent, from $500 to $14,500.

Since then, its per capita GDP based on purchasing power parity (PPP) has caught up with and zoomed past America’s.

Lee Kuan Yew's Singapore Flourished while Fidel Castro's Cuba Floundered
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Under Castro and his brother Raúl’s control, Cuba’s once-promising economy has deteriorated, private enterprise has all but been abolished and the poverty rate stands at 26 percent. According to the CIA’s World Factbook, “the average Cuban’s standard of living remains at a lower level than before the collapse of the Soviet Union.” Its government is currently facing bankruptcy. And among 11.3 million of Cuba’s inhabitants, only 5 million—less than 45 percent of the population—participate in the labor force.

Compare that to Singapore: Even though the island is home to a mere 5.4 million people, its labor force hovers above 3.4 million.

Singapore Had Third-Highest GDP Based on Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) Per Capita

Because of the free-market policies that Lee implemented, Singapore is ranked first in the world on the World Bank Group’s Ease of Doing Business list and, for the fourth consecutive year, ranked second on the World Economic Forum’s Global Competitiveness Report. The Heritage Foundation ranks the nation second on its 2015 Index of Economic Freedom, writing:

Sustained efforts to build a world-class financial center and further open its market to global commerce have led to advances in… economic freedoms, including financial freedom and investment freedom.

Cuba, meanwhile, comes in at number 177 on the Heritage Foundation’s list and is the “least free of 29 countries in the South and Central America/Caribbean region.” The Caribbean island-state doesn’t rank at all on the World Bank Group’s list, which includes 189 world economies.

Many successful international businesses have emerged and thrived in the Singapore that Lee created, the most notable being Singapore Airlines. Founded in 1947, the carrier has ascended to become one of the most profitable companies in the world. It’s been recognized as the world’s best airline countless times by dozens of groups and publications. Recently it appeared on Fortune’s Most Admired Companies list.

Singapore AIrlines

We at U.S. Global Investors honor the legacy of Lee Kuan Yew, founder of modern-day Singapore. He showed the world that when a country chooses to open its markets and foster a friendly business environment, strength and prosperity follow. Even on the other side of the globe, the American Dream lives on.

 

 

The Global Competitiveness Index, developed for the World Economic Forum, is used to assess competitiveness of nations. The Index is made up of over 113 variables, organized into 12 pillars, with each pillar representing an area considered as an important determinant of competitiveness: institutions, infrastructure, macroeconomic stability, health and primary education, higher education and training, goods market efficiency, labor market efficiency, financial market sophistication, technological readiness, market size, business sophistication and innovation.

The Ease of Doing Business Index is an index created by the World Bank Group. Higher rankings (a low numerical value) indicate better, usually simpler, regulations for businesses and stronger protections of property rights.

The Index of Economic Freedom is an annual index and ranking created by The Heritage Foundation and The Wall Street Journal in 1995 to measure the degree of economic freedom in the world's nations.

Holdings may change daily. Holdings are reported as of the most recent quarter-end. None of the securities mentioned in the article were held by any accounts managed by U.S. Global Investors as of 9/30/2016.

All opinions expressed and data provided are subject to change without notice. Some of these opinions may not be appropriate to every investor. By clicking the link(s) above, you will be directed to a third-party website(s). U.S. Global Investors does not endorse all information supplied by this/these website(s) and is not responsible for its/their content.

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The Great American Splurge
November 28, 2016

Retail madness: more than 137 million american consumers plan to shop thanksgiving weekend

In a Frank Talk last week, I discussed the surge in small-cap stocks since Donald Trump’s election. A bet on smaller domestic stocks, I wrote, is a bet that Trump will deliver on his promise to “make America great again.” He plans to lower taxes, streamline regulations and spend big on infrastructure—all of which has led to a rally in the small-cap Russell 2000 Index and the 10-Year Treasury yield.

big moves in small-cap stocks and treasury yields since trump's election
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The ramifications of government policy change under Trump, especially fiscal policy, have the potential to be huge. Since Election Day, we’ve seen the strong U.S. dollar hurt gold, while the Canadian dollar and Chinese renminbi have dropped.

The question now is whether Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen will put the brakes on the so-called Trump rally. She asserts that Fed policy is not politically motivated, but I wonder how many people actually believe that. She’s already criticized Trump’s plans to tear up or at least significantly weaken Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform.

Both former Fed Chair Alan Greenspan and billionaire investor Warren Buffett have recently suggested Dodd-Frank needs to go, with Greenspan telling CNBC that he’d love to see the 2010 law “disappear.” Buffett, meanwhile, commented in an interview this month that the U.S. is “less well equipped to handle a financial crisis today than we were in 2008. Dodd-Frank has taken away the Federal Reserve’s ability to act in a crisis.”

Retail madness: more than 137 million american consumers plan to shop thanksgiving weekend

Since the election, banks have seen strong inflows, as investors are betting that the financial industry could be one of the largest beneficiaries of Trump’s administration.

According to Evercore ISI analyst Glenn Schorr, “Animal spirits and higher confidence have returned, and investors are now expecting a better revenue, expense, tax, capital and regulatory profile for financials.” In addition, “we might have just flipped from feeling pretty late cycle right back to early cycle depending on how much we want to buy into Trump’s pro-growth agenda.”

Americans Take Advantage of Low Inflation

Last year, lower gas prices helped American households save $700 on average. Although savings aren’t likely to be as much this year, Americans managed to save in other ways—namely, food and beverages.

According to the American Farm Bureau Federation (AFBF), the cost of a typical Thanksgiving meal for 10—consisting of a turkey, stuffing, sweet potatoes, cranberries, a pumpkin pie and other traditional sides—fell 24 cents from last year’s average to $49.87. That translates to a per-person cost of just under $5, confirming that “U.S. consumers benefit from an abundant high-quality and affordable food supply,” says AFBF Director of Market Intelligence Dr. John Newton.

As I’ve said multiple times before, the U.S. shale oil boom helped deliver an “oil peace dividend” to the world, which drove transportation costs and, therefore, food and beverage costs down over the past two years.

A Thanksgiving Meal fell below $5 per person this year
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Low fuel costs also encouraged a huge number of families to hit the highway this Thanksgiving weekend. According to AAA, roughly 50 million people—about 1 million more than last year— journeyed 50 miles or more from their homes, the most since 2007.

With gas prices at their second lowest level in a decade, driving remains the most popular mode of transportation. But as I previously shared with you, flying has also become more and more affordable for many Americans. This week, an estimated 27 million passengers flew on U.S. airlines, an increase of 2.5 percent over last year.

27 million passengers will fly U.S. airlines this Thanksgiving week, up 2.5 percent from last year

Black Friday Is the New Cyber Monday

It isn’t just travel that’s back to pre-recession levels. This year, it appears more Americans than ever before—enjoying low inflation and rising wages—will be spending their savings on gifts for friends and family, if estimates from the National Retail Federation (NRF) are accurate.

According to the retail trade association, as many as 137.4 million consumers planned to shop this Thanksgiving weekend, nearly a whopping 60 percent of Americans. This figure is up from last year's 135.8 million people. This includes both in-store shopping as well as online shopping, which, as you might have noticed, is becoming a huge deal.

Black Friday remains the busiest shopping day, with 74 percent of consumers telling the NRF they planned to venture out into the crowds to take advantage of gotta-have-it bargains.

But e-commerce is quickly catching up, with the internet-only Cyber Monday second in sales to Black Friday. For the first time this holiday season, online purchases are expected to account for more than 10 percent of all retail sales, according to consumer research firm eMarketer. “Online sales,” reports Bloomberg, “are likely to climb to $94.7 billion, representing almost 11 percent of total sales in November and December, an all-time high.”

E-commerce is set to account for a record share of retails sales this holiday season
click to enlarge

The growing popularity of online shopping has prompted more and more brick-and-mortar retailers to push their e-commerce sales earlier to Black Friday and even Thanksgiving Day. In years past, retailers waited until Cyber Monday to post digital discounts, but today they risk losing market share among shoppers who increasingly prefer making purchases off their laptop and smartphone.

One of these retailers is Walmart, which will start offering online sales two days in advance, in a bid to stay ahead of competitor Amazon.  In a press release, the Arkansas-based behemoth announced it has tripled its assortment of online products, from 8 million last year to more than 23 million today.

Another Record Year for Packages Delivered

The rise in e-commerce has had the inevitable effect of giving more business to ground and air delivery companies such as FedEx and United Parcel Service (UPS). It’s expected that, with online sales jumping 17 percent this year, the number of packages handled and shipped will jump to a record high.

According to Business Insider, UPS—the world’s largest delivery company—projects it will ship a record-setting 700 million packages between Thanksgiving and Christmas, or 70 million more than the same time last year. FedEx hopes it can ship 10 percent more than the 325 million it delivered last year.

Meanwhile, Amazon’s plans to establish its own in-house transportation network have hit a setback. About 250 pilots contracted with Amazon partners Air Transport Service Group and Atlas Air Worldwide Holdings went on strike Tuesday over a “longstanding labor dispute.” The Jeff Bezos-run retailer has been determined to deliver its own products after bad weather in 2013 delayed millions of Christmas deliveries, but it appears these efforts are off to a rough start.

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The Russell 2000 Index is a U.S. equity index measuring the performance of the 2,000 smallest companies in the Russell 3000. The Russell 3000 Index consists of the 3,000 largest U.S. companies as determined by total market capitalization.

Holdings may change daily. Holdings are reported as of the most recent quarter-end. The following securities mentioned in the article were held by one or more accounts managed by U.S. Global Investors as of 9/30/2016: United Parcel Service Inc.

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