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Please note: The Frank Talk articles listed below contain historical material. The data provided was current at the time of publication. For current information regarding any of the funds mentioned in these presentations, please visit the appropriate fund performance page.

3 Factors that Are Changing the Oil Trade
May 16, 2017

Oil Rigs

For the last five years, crude oil has been behaving a little differently than it has in the past. At least that’s the takeaway from the chart below, based on the Moore Research Center’s analysis of oil’s seasonal trading patterns. Note that the index on the left measures the greatest historical tendency for the asset to make a seasonal high (100) or low (0) at a given time.

Crude Oil Historical Patterns
click to enlarge

First, take a look at the dark and light blue lines, which represent the average price action for the 15-year period and 30-year period. In either case, oil looks remarkably the same—lows were most likely to have occurred in mid- to late winter, followed by a rally leading into the busy summer travel season. March historically yielded the highest monthly returns, October and November the lowest.

But then something changed. The five-year period, represented by the orange line, shows oil hitting lows not in the winter but in late fall. Highs were more likely in May, not September.

So why’s this happening?

Behold exhibit A, U.S. crude oil production since 1983:

U.S. crude oil production in thousands of barrels per day
click to enlarge

American Fracking Responsible for Record Output

Frankly, a lot has changed in the five-year period compared to the longer-term periods. We can put hydraulic fracturing, or fracking, at the top of the list, as it’s responsible for the huge ramp-up in production you see in the chart above.

Fracking has been among the most disruptive technological applications in the history of U.S. energy production. In 2009, oil producers were averaging a little over 5,300 barrels a day. Just six years later, they were well on their way to 10 million barrels a day before an oversupplied market kneecapped prices, prompting producers to shut down operations and abandon oilfields.

U.S. crude oil production in thousands of barrels per dayNow, with the number of active rigs in North America on the rise—for the week ended May 5, the number crossed above 700 for the first time in two years—production is beginning to mount once again. According to the Energy Information Administration (EIA), domestic output should average 9.3 million barrels a day this year and nearly 10 million in 2018, a level we haven’t seen in this country since 1970.

Obviously this has a huge effect on the price of oil, which is reflected in the five-year trading pattern. Look again at the orange line. The dramatic plunge you see in October and November coincides with the same period in 2014 when the oil price fell by half.

As influential as fracking is, though, there are a couple other shifting factors at play, including the weather and OPEC policy.

A Growing Number of Weather Events Costing $1 Billion

Weather undeniably affects production, from droughts to floods to hurricanes. The Canadian wildfires in the summer of 2016, for example, cost oil sands producers an estimated $1.4 billion and knocked out as much as 800,000 barrels of oil a day.

Such extreme weather events are on the rise, according to most experts. The National Centers for Environmental Information (NOAA) reports that in the first quarter of 2017, there were five unusual weather incidents in the U.S. with losses exceeding $1 billion each. That might not sound like a lot—until you learn that between 1980 and 2016, the annual average for similarly large events was 5.5. (In 2016, the total was 15.) We appear to be running ahead of schedule, then, which could have the effect of disrupting some projects.

OPEC Strategy Is Less Effective

There was a time when the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) commanded great influence over global oil prices. Responsible for about 40 percent of the world’s production, OPEC can modulate the flow of the black stuff like a spigot with the intent to raise or lower prices. 

It’s a strategy that’s reliably worked in the past. In December I showed what happened in the weeks and months following its agreement to cut production in 1998, 2001 and 2008. The data show that prices rallied in the two years after such a pact.

But with American frackers increasingly dominating the global market, OPEC’s decision to trim output is becoming less and less effective.

Take a look:

Does OPEC Policy Influence Oil Prices Anymore?
click to enlarge

Since the cartel announced on November 30 that it would reduce production by 1.2 million barrels a day, or about 1 percent of global output, prices climbed to as high as $54 a barrel. Now, however, they  look ready to return where they started.

Don’t get me wrong—OPEC still exerts vast control. Oil’s poised to have its best week since late March on news that the cartel and Russia are both planning to extend production cuts into next year, with Saudi Arabia saying it’s prepared to do “whatever it takes” to draw down inventories.

But it’s important to recognize that, in a world where fracking now accounts for more than half of American output, such a strategy is less effective. It will be interesting to see what OPEC decides at its meeting later this month.

Americans Ready to Hit the Road

In its short-term energy outlook, the EIA expects record U.S. highway travel and fuel consumption this summer, which is constructive for energy stocks. Americans are projected to travel 1.4 percent more than last summer and consume 9.5 million barrels of gas per day, 20,000 more than the same period last year.

This bodes well for the types of companies held in our Global Resources Fund (PSPFX), which invests in firms involved not only in the exploration, production and processing of petroleum, natural gas, coal and other, but also basic materials such as chemicals and paper and forest products.

 

 

 

Please consider carefully a fund’s investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses. For this and other important information, obtain a fund prospectus by visiting www.usfunds.com or by calling 1-800-US-FUNDS (1-800-873-8637). Read it carefully before investing. Foreside Fund Services, LLC, Distributor. U.S. Global Investors is the investment adviser.

Foreign and emerging market investing involves special risks such as currency fluctuation and less public disclosure, as well as economic and political risk. Because the Global Resources Fund concentrates its investments in specific industries, the fund may be subject to greater risks and fluctuations than a portfolio representing a broader range of industries.

All opinions expressed and data provided are subject to change without notice. Some of these opinions may not be appropriate to every investor. By clicking the link(s) above, you will be directed to a third-party website(s). U.S. Global Investors does not endorse all information supplied by this/these website(s) and is not responsible for its/their content.

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An Unexpected Change in Gold’s Seasonal Trading Pattern
May 15, 2017

an unexpected change in gold's seasonal trade pattern

Here at the outset, I want to share with you an interesting observation we made last week of gold’s seasonal trading pattern. As you can see in the chart below, based on data provided by Moore Research Center, the five-year pattern, represented by the orange line, is diverging from the longer-term trends. Note that the index on the left measures the greatest tendency for the asset to make a seasonal high (100) or low (0) at a given time.

Gold Historical Patterns
click to enlarge

The data show that lows are now reached late in the year, not in January (according to the 15-year period, represented by the dark blue line) or August (according to the 30-year pattern, represented by the light blue line). Historically, September has seen the highest returns on gold as Indians make huge purchases in preparation for Diwali and the fourth-quarter wedding season, but lately we’ve seen changes. When we calculate the average monthly returns of the past five years, from January 2012 to December 2016, we find that January is the strongest month, returning 5.3 percent, followed by August with 2.3 percent. September actually returns negative 1.3 percent.

There could be a number of reasons why this is, but it’s important to recognize that the five-year period captures the bear market that dragged gold from its high of $1,900 an ounce in August 2011 to a recent low of $1,050 in December 2015. The years 2013, 2014 and 2015 all saw negative returns, so it’s little wonder why the orange line trends down from February-March to December. 

Inflation Props Up Gold

Consumer and producer prices rose in April compared to the same time last year, favoring gold prices going forward. Consumer goods climbed 2.2 percent, down slightly from March’s 2.4 percent. Wholesale goods, meanwhile, flew up 5.3 percent, higher than economists’ expectations and the strongest year-over-year increase in nearly six years. 

U.S. Inflation's Gonna Get You
click to enlarge

On numerous occasions I’ve shown that higher inflation supports demand for gold, which has often been seen as a safe haven investment. The money you have sitting in the bank right now is guaranteed to lose value over time. The five-year Treasury bond is currently yielding a negative return. Diversiying a part of your portfolio into gold and gold stocks could help mitigate the effects of inflation on your household wealth. I’ve always recommended a 10 percent weighting with annual rebalances.   

Chindia Demand Was Strong in the First Quarter

Chindia Demand was strong in the first quarter

In India, no one questions this. Aside from property, gold is seen as the most reliable store of value, which is why it’s routinely given as a gift during weddings, graduations, births and other important life events.

Indians’ demand for gold jewelry jumped 16 percent year-over-year in the first quarter, according to the World Gold Council (WGC), as the country slowly recovers from the economic shock of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s demonetization scheme in November.

Demand in China for gold bars and coins had an unusually strong start to the year, fueled by concerns over a weakening renminbi and uncertainty over the country’s real estate market. The first quarter has historically been a good time for Chinese demand, as that’s when the Lunar New Year falls. This year, though, demand was up an amazing 30 percent, with 105.9 metric tons (tonnes) purchased during the three-month period. According to the WGC, this was the fourth-strongest quarter on record.

Looking ahead, gold prices could be supported by steadily declining mine production. Over the next five to 10 years, output from currently-operational mines is expected to drop off steeply as a consequence of deep spending cuts for project development as well as a lack of significant new deposit discoveries.

Mine Production Likely to drop beyond 2018 as the project pipeline is squeezed
click to enlarge

Between 2012 and 2016, capital expenditure for companies in the NYSE Arca Gold BUGS Index contracted 65 percent, the WGC reports. This will inevitably squeeze the supply chain and help prices firm up.

Stock Investors Have No Fear

In the near term, gold faces a number of headwinds, including a strong U.S. dollar, rising nominal interest rates and a still-robust stock market. Despite recent geopolitical shockwaves such as President Donald Trump’s surprise firing of FBI director James Comey, investors still see stocks as a good place to be, with the CBOE Volatility Index, or VIX, trading at lows last seen in 1993.

investor fear at near-record lows: headwind for gold?
click to enlarge

Popularly known as the “fear gauge,” the VIX measures expected volatility in the S&P 500 Index over the next month. That it’s trading so low suggests that geopolitical uncertainty doesn’t always translate into investor uncertainty. Evidently Wall Street doesn’t share the same sense of impending doom as some voters and media figures appear to have right now concerning Comey’s termination and the ongoing investigation into possible collusion between the Trump campaign and the Russian government.

This matters because gold has historically benefited in times of crisis and uncertainty, whether real or perceived. But with the VIX signaling near-record-low fear in the marketplace, some investors might see this as weakening the case for gold.

Where We See the Gold Opportunities

In this environment, we seek high-quality producers that are profitable and show improvements in revenue and cash flow. This yields junior companies such as Klondex and Wesdome, both of which have demonstrated strong fundamentals, low SG&A (selling, general and administrative expenses),  cost-conscientious management and higher-grade ore.

The recent bubble in gold stocks unwound, which was harmful to some quality gold names that were affected by the issues involving the VanEck Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ), which I wrote about last week. Since the GDXJ methodology update was announced, the ETF has recorded large redemptions, with assets plunging as much as 25 percent.

The GDXJ doesn’t have any smart beta attributes—instead, it relies on market cap. As portfolio manager Ralph Aldis put it, this means “we find a lot of high-quality companies being indiscriminately sold down.” We see this as an opportunity to nibble at some attractive small-cap growth names.

 

 

All opinions expressed and data provided are subject to change without notice. Some of these opinions may not be appropriate to every investor. By clicking the link(s) above, you will be directed to a third-party website(s). U.S. Global Investors does not endorse all information supplied by this/these website(s) and is not responsible for its/their content.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is one of the most widely recognized price measures for tracking the price of a market basket of goods and services purchased by individuals.  The weights of components are based on consumer spending patterns. The Producer Price Index (PPI) measures prices received by producers at the first commercial sale.  The index measures goods at three stages of production:  finished, intermediate and crude.

The NYSE Arca Gold BUGS (Basket of Unhedged Gold Stocks) Index (HUI) is a modified equal dollar weighted index of companies involved in gold mining. The HUI Index was designed to provide significant exposure to near term movements in gold prices by including companies that do not hedge their gold production beyond 1.5 years.

Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) Volatility Index (VIX) shows the market's expectation of 30-day volatility.

The S&P 500 Stock Index is a widely recognized capitalization-weighted index of 500 common stock prices in U.S. companies.

Beta is a measure of the volatility, or systematic risk, of a security or a portfolio in comparison to the market as a whole.

Holdings may change daily. Holdings are reported as of the most recent quarter-end. The following securities mentioned in the article were held by one or more accounts managed by U.S. Global Investors as of 3/31/2017: Klondex Mines Ltd., Wesdome Gold Mines Ltd., VanEck Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF.

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The Case of the Missing U.S. Stocks
May 9, 2017

The Case of the Missing U.S. Stocks

In the last 20 years, the U.S. stock market has undergone an alarming change that too few people are aware of or talking about. Between 1996 and 2016, the number of listed companies fell by half, from 7,300 to 3,600, according to a recent report by Credit Suisse. This occurred despite the U.S. economy growing nearly 60 percent over the same period.

Number of Listed U.S. Companies Continues to Drop
click to enlarge

What’s even more flummoxing is that the U.S. seems to be the only developed country that lost so many stocks. Most other countries actually gained around 50 percent.

This matters because the U.S. stock market accounts for a little over half of the entire global equity market, meaning a huge (and growing) number of investors and fund managers now have fewer options to choose from than they did only a couple of decades ago.

So why’s the pool of publically-traded companies shrinking? We can point to a few different culprits.

For one, merger and acquisition (M&A) activity has strengthened in recent years, and when an M&A takes place, a company is consequentially delisted (if it was listed before the deal). The same thing happens, of course, when a company goes out of business.

Another reason could be the growth of private capital, which allows companies to raise funds without having to go public. Between 2013 and 2015, the amount of private money invested in tech start-ups alone tripled from $26 billion to $75 billion, according to consulting firm McKinsey. As a result, more and more software firms are managing to reach $10 billion in value before their IPO. Think wildly successful companies like Dropbox, Airbnb, Pinterest, Uber—all of which, for now, have avoided selling shares to public investors.

Unintended Consequences

My belief is that, out of all the reasons for fewer U.S. stocks and IPOs, the most impactful has been the surge in federal regulations over the last two decades. Rising costs associated with being listed on an exchange and meeting compliance standards have prohibited IPOs for all but the very largest U.S. firms. Small businesses—which, according to the American Council for Capital Formation (ACCF), account for more than half of all U.S. sales and 66 percent of all new jobs since 1970—are increasingly less competitive.  

This partly explains why more and more companies are delaying  going public. Back in 1980, Apple’s IPO came a mere four years after Steve Jobs, Steve Wozniak and Ronald Wayne founded the company in Jobs’ garage. Amazon waited only three years after Jeff Bezos founded it in 1994. Today that number has risen dramatically. It’s now estimated that the average age of a tech firm at the time of IPO is 11 years.

Some might disagree that regulations have had much of an effect on the U.S. equity market, but I believe the evidence is incontestable.

Consider the Sarbanes-Oxley Act (SOX), signed by President George W. Bush in 2002. Its goal, to prevent massive corporate fraud such as we saw from Enron and WorldCom, is an admirable one. But SOX has had several unintended consequences, as I’ve explained before. Because SOX’s requisite internal control procedures are so costly and cumbersome—necessitating additional compliance and accounting positions, not to mention hundreds of hours in compliance-driven tasks—smaller firms are inevitably at a disadvantage.

As a result, many small to mid-sized companies are delaying going public, or avoiding it altogether, to escape the regulatory burden. Before SOX, there were an average 528 IPOs a year. Since it was enacted, that number has fallen to 135, a decline of nearly 75 percent, according to Dealogic data. Last year, only 111 IPOs made it to market, a far cry from the 779 that took place in pre-SOX 1996.

Sarbanes Oxley Act Has Decreased the Number of IPOs 75% and Prohibited Smaller Companies from Going Public
click to enlarge

Other legislation has deterred even more companies from pursuing an IPO, including the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform Act.

Consider also that small business loans have all but dried up for small businesses. In 2004, small business loans represented about 40 percent of commercial banks’ loan portfolio. Today, it’s closer to 20 percent, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. This pullback in lending can be blamed on several factors, the Dallas Fed writes, “with regulatory burden among the most prominent”:

Large banks have indicated they are less likely to make small loans because the cost of processing a $100,000 loan is comparable to that of a $1 million loan. As a result, large banks have significantly reduced loans below a certain threshold, typically $250,000, or have stopped lending to businesses with revenue less than $2 million.

U.S. Banks Cutting Small-Business Loan Concentrations
click to enlarge

It’s little wonder that, in an August 2016 survey conducted by the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB), small-business owners  said “unreasonable government regulations” were their second-highest concern, following “cost of health insurance.” More than 33 percent said regulations were a “critical” problem.

In another survey, this one conducted by the Center for Capital Markets Competitiveness (CCMC), nearly 80 percent of corporate treasurers, CEOs and CFOs said they had seen their business negatively affected by changes in the financial markets following the implementation of Dodd-Frank.

Relief Is Coming

But there’s hope. President Donald Trump has pledged to roll back many of the rules that have acted like plaque build-up in the heart of smaller companies seeking to expand. Just this week, the House Financial Services Committee approved a bill to begin gutting many of the provisions in Dodd-Frank. The S&P 500 Index edged up to close at a record high Friday.

In December, a month after the election, the NFIB’s Small Business Optimism Index soared to 105.8, up from 98.4 in November, a 12-year high. Optimism fell somewhat to 104.7 in March, the most recent month of available data, but it still holds at historically high levels.

small business optimism still at historically high after retreating somewhat in march
click to enlarge

Markets lately were beginning to lose faith in the president’s ability to deliver on a number of his key campaign promises. But after the House gave him a much-needed victory this week by voting to repeal Obamacare and Dodd-Frank, many small business-owners’ excitement about other Trump proposals such as deregulation and corporate tax reform is likely to be rekindled.

Until Trump can streamline regulations, however, it’s probably wise to focus on large-cap stocks, especially those that have an attractive dividend yield and are buying back their stock.

 

All opinions expressed and data provided are subject to change without notice. Some of these opinions may not be appropriate to every investor. By clicking the link(s) above, you will be directed to a third-party website(s). U.S. Global Investors does not endorse all information supplied by this/these website(s) and is not responsible for its/their content.

The S&P 500 Stock Index is a widely recognized capitalization-weighted index of 500 common stock prices in U.S. companies. The National Federation of Independent Business’s (NFIB) Index of business optimism is based on responses from 1221 member firms.

There is no guarantee that the issuers of any securities will declare dividends in the future or that, if declared, will remain at current levels or increase over time.

Holdings may change daily. Holdings are reported as of the most recent quarter-end. None of the securities mentioned in the article were held by any accounts managed by U.S. Global Investors as of 3/31/2017.

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European Manufacturers on a Tear on Weaker Euro
May 8, 2017

European Manufacturers on a Tear on Weaker Euro

At the start of the second quarter, the eurozone’s manufacturing sector grew at its fastest pace in six years, climbing from 56.2 in March to 56.7 in April and marking the eighth straight month of expansion. Of the eight eurozone countries that IHS Markit surveys, only Greece failed to show any improvement during the month.

Growth was spurred by new orders, output and job creation, and companies are benefiting from both the historically weak euro and the European Central Bank’s ongoing stimulus, including low interest rates. Factory jobs are currently seeing one of their strongest upticks in the survey’s 20-year history.

Ahead of France’s presidential election this past weekend—polls heavily favored the victor, 39-year-old Emmanuel Macron, over far-right candidate Marine Le Pen—the country showed impressive momentum, rising from 53.3 in March to 55.1 in April. New orders grew at their sharpest pace in six years. Meanwhile, the United Kingdom’s manufacturing sector continued to expand post-Brexit, rising to a three-year high of 57.3.

manufacturing in major economies continues to expand
click to enlarge

Both the U.S. and China continued to expand at the start of the second quarter, though at a slightly slower pace than in March. U.S. manufacturing growth relaxed a little more than 2 percent, from 57.2 to 54.8, but it still remains at a high level in the six months following the presidential election. Chinese factories pumped the brakes in April, with growth slowing to a seven-month low.

Manufacturing on a global level continued to expand as well but, like the U.S. and China, at a slower pace. The index fell from 53 in March to 52.8 in April, with the one-month reading falling below its three-month moving average for the first time since April of last year. 

global PMI falls below its three-month moving average in april
click to enlarge

Like clockwork, copper and oil were off last week. As I’ve shown a number of times before, the PMI can be used as a forecast tool for commodities and natural resource prices.

Last Wednesday copper lost 3.5 percent, marking the largest single-day loss since September 2015. The red metal ended the week at $2.53 a pound. Oil tumbled nearly 5 percent on Thursday to close the trading day at $45.48, a level we haven’t seen since December. On Friday it finished above $46 a barrel.

SALT Conference

Later this month I’ll be in Las Vegas attending the annual SkyBridge Alternatives Conference (SALT), which normally attracts some of the biggest rock stars in the hedge fund and investing world. This year’s speaker lineup includes Ben Bernanke; Jeffrey Gundlach, CEO of DoubleLine; Eric Schmidt, executive chairman of Alphabet; Bill Ackman, CEO of Pershing Square Capital; and many more. It should be a highly enlightening conference, and I’ll likely have a few takeaways to share with you.

 

 

All opinions expressed and data provided are subject to change without notice. Some of these opinions may not be appropriate to every investor. By clicking the link(s) above, you will be directed to a third-party website(s). U.S. Global Investors does not endorse all information supplied by this/these website(s) and is not responsible for its/their content.

The Purchasing Manager’s Index is an indicator of the economic health of the manufacturing sector. The PMI index is based on five major indicators: new orders, inventory levels, production, supplier deliveries and the employment environment.

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Can Too Much Money Go Into One ETF?
May 5, 2017

When billions of dollars flow into an ETF, it’s safe to assume this is because of its popularity among investors. The VanEck Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ), which invests heavily in junior gold miners around the world, can attest to this kind of popularity, with some $1.5 billion flowing into it this year alone. Total assets jumped 60 percent in 2017 to over $5 billion.

lumber logs a 12 year high

At some point, however, as is the case with the GDXJ, asset growth can outpace an ETF’s underlying index. As BMO Capital Markets reported in mid-April, there will be a massive rebalance trade around the GDXJ on June 17, with changes already taking place. The index methodology is now permitting larger companies to be added, with significant demand for around 18 potential new additions, in conjunction with down-weighting of existing names.

The new index methodology allows the ETF’s largest company by market cap to be $2.9 billion, versus $1.8 billion under the current method, reports Investor's Business Daily. This puts it over the traditional $2.5 billion limit for small caps.

Impacts of the “Pre-Balance”

So what will the “pre-balance” and official rebalance in June mean for investors? For starters, it may mean less exposure to small-cap names. As I told Kitco News, this is a disruptor for small-cap gold stocks, which are getting knocked down for no reason when they have great fundamentals.

In addition, the ETF will need to sell $3 billion worth of its existing holdings to buy the new large-cap additions, which will create a massive funding trade significantly impacting existing names, BMO continues.

The number of companies the GDXJ can invest in starting in June will go from 48 to 69.

Sifting and Sorting For Opportunity

Since the GDXJ methodology update was announced, Macquarie Research reported last week that both the GDXJ and the VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX) have recorded large redemptions. Since April 13, the GDXJ has gone from $5.5 billion to $4.1 billion, losing approximately 25 percent of its assets. Similarly, the GDX went from $12.4 billion to $10.1 billion since the news – a drop of 19 percent.

lumber logs a 12 year high
click to enlarge

“Indiscriminate selling pressure has been placed on the sector due to redefining the index methodology not based on the fundamentals of companies,” explains portfolio manager Ralph Aldis. The investment universes of both the GDX and the GDXJ are defined by market cap and liquidity and designed like many ETFs are, to deliver beta but not alpha.

“There are no smart beta attributes to these ETFs, meaning we find a lot of high quality names are being indiscriminately sold down,” Aldis continues. “This may provide an excellent entry point for astute investors to pick up small-cap, high-quality growth names.”

 

All opinions expressed and data provided are subject to change without notice. Some of these opinions may not be appropriate to every investor. By clicking the link above, you will be directed to a third-party website. U.S. Global Investors does not endorse all information supplied by this website and is not responsible for its content.

Holdings may change daily. Holdings are reported as of the most recent quarter-end. The following securities mentioned in the interview were held by one or more accounts managed by U.S. Global Investors as of 03/31/2017: VanEck Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ), VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX).

Alpha is a measure of performance on a risk-adjusted basis. Alpha takes the volatility (price risk) of a mutual fund and compares its risk-adjusted performance to a benchmark index. The excess return of the fund relative to the return of the benchmark index is a fund's alpha.

Beta is a measure of the volatility, or systematic risk, of a security or a portfolio in comparison to the market as a whole.

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Net Asset Value
as of 08/18/2017

Global Resources Fund PSPFX $5.45 0.01 Gold and Precious Metals Fund USERX $7.39 0.03 World Precious Minerals Fund UNWPX $6.49 0.08 China Region Fund USCOX $10.12 0.05 Emerging Europe Fund EUROX $6.76 0.03 All American Equity Fund GBTFX $23.63 -0.22 Holmes Macro Trends Fund MEGAX $19.35 0.02 Near-Term Tax Free Fund NEARX $2.23 No Change U.S. Government Securities Ultra-Short Bond Fund UGSDX $2.00 No Change